Diplomats from the so-called “pro-Mercosur” European countries have been speaking out on the eve of the summit: the EU/Mercosur trade agreement must be signed as a matter of urgency on Saturday, otherwise the countries of the Latin American bloc will turn their backs on the EU. All those who support the free trade agreement defended this line on Wednesday 17 December in Brussels and Strasbourg. For them, the credibility of the EU as a partner is at stake. “We are in a situation where we have to choose to sign now or to let it die”, said a European diplomat on Wednesday, on the eve of a European summit where the subject is bound to be discussed.
According to another source close to the negotiations on the agreement, Brazil is becoming impatient and is putting pressure on the EU to approve the agreement.
The main obstacle so far is that France has not changed its position in recent days. It wants to take more time before signing. The provisional agreement reached between the European Parliament and the EU Council on the safeguard measure on Wednesday evening is unlikely to convince Paris. The government is up against angry farmers.
Moving forward without France. Against this backdrop, a growing number of players believe that the EU Council should approve the agreement, even without France’s approval. “It’s not ideal, but we have to move forward. We need reliable partners in the world at all costs, especially in the light of what is happening with US President, Donald Trump”, said the influential MEP Bernd Lange (S&D, German) on the evening of Tuesday 16 December in front of a number of journalists, including Agence Europe.
This is also the opinion of a number of European diplomats and officials, who are anxious to see the trade agreement signed. “It’s difficult for us to tell Mercosur how the situation will be different in three weeks’ time”, explained one of them.
In a scenario where a majority of countries agree to put France in the minority, it would now be Italy that would be the main unknown.
Italy also needs more time. The Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, also spoke out in favour of delaying the decision, in front of her country’s deputies on Wednesday 17 December: “We believe that it is necessary to await the finalisation of the additional package of measures to protect the agricultural sector and, at the same time, to explain and discuss it with our farmers”.
The concerns of the farming community are very much in evidence in Italy, but the benefits that the EU/Mercosur agreement would bring to Italian industry weigh heavily in the balance. Several sources claim that the Italian Prime Minister cannot afford to vote against the agreement, unlike France.
Is a solid safeguard enough of a guarantee? Could the provisional agreement reached on Wednesday evening between the European Parliament and the Council on the safeguard measure be enough to convince Ms Meloni?
The two institutions have reached a compromise on the thresholds that trigger a safeguard investigation: an 8% increase in imports coupled with an 8% drop in prices will trigger an investigation. The Commission had set thresholds at 10% and the Parliament at 5% (see EUROPE 13774/1).
The other amendments adopted by the Parliament to strengthen the safeguard mechanism were dropped, as the Council and the Commission considered them incompatible with the agreement.
Only citrus fruits were added to the list of products covered by the regulation at the request of the EP.
As for the reciprocity requirement introduced by MEPs concerning health, environmental and animal welfare standards, this is now only the subject of a declaration of commitment annexed to the text.
The agreement was to be validated by the permanent representatives of the EU Member States in the Council that same evening.
This safeguard is one of the demands made by Italy and France. Both countries have already indicated that the strengthening of the text in recent days was positive, without however saying whether they would be satisfied with it.
This has raised the hopes of the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU, which would like to put the vote on the agreement on the agenda of EU ambassadors this Friday. To achieve this, it wants to be able to count on a qualified majority of Member States in favour of the agreement, which now depends on Italy’s approval.
Decisive summit? The hope now is that the talks between leaders on Thursday 18 December will break the deadlock.
These discussions will take place against a backdrop of agricultural demonstrations in Brussels, where several thousand farmers are expected to be present.
On Tuesday 16 December, the EU’s agricultural organisations and cooperatives (Copa-Cogeca), supported by other organisations (poultry, sugar, ethanol, etc.), called on European decision-makers to reject the EU-Mercosur agreement. In their view, even the European Parliament’s vote on strengthened safeguard measures does not correct the major structural imbalances in the agreement and offers no real protection for sensitive agricultural sectors.
The organisations are denouncing a lack of guarantees in the face of distortions of competition, linked in particular to different production standards, and fear a further destabilisation of the European agricultural sector.
They are calling on the EU27 to shoulder their responsibilities in the EU Council and reject the agreement in its current form. (Original version in French by Léa Marchal and Lionel Changeur, with the editorial staff)