His visit began with a slight, yet revealing, moment of hesitation. While in Brussels on Wednesday 10 December, Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić casually quipped that he had “received a message from Moscow” as he entered the press room alongside the President of the European Commission.
Visibly uncomfortable, Ursula von der Leyen quickly interrupted the exchange, which was captured by the cameras that were already present. While the content of the message and the rest of the discussion will forever remain enigmatic, this incident highlights the precarious balance that Aleksandar Vučić’s Serbia is seeking to maintain between the links it holds with Russia and its stated aspiration to join the Union (see EUROPE 13731/22).
Officially, the European Commission continues to assert that enlargement is a geopolitical imperative for the EU and that Serbia has a rightful place in it. The two leaders took advantage of the working dinner held in the evening to take stock of the progress made by Belgrade in terms of its internal reforms, despite the lack of substantial progress.
In its recent report on the reforms undertaken by Serbia (see EUROPE 13745/5), the European Commission was of the opinion that the country is experiencing a “partial setback” in terms of democracy and fundamental freedoms, and that they must “avoid spreading anti-EU rhetoric”.
As further proof of the stalemate, Belgrade’s EU accession process has been at a standstill since December 2021, when the country opened its last set of negotiating chapters (cluster). Only two of the 22 chapters opened by Serbia have been closed.
“I have nothing new to tell you. I know that some people in Serbia are definitely pleased that we are not opening the third stage of accession negotiations. I can’t say for sure whether we will or not, because it depends on the Member States”, Aleksandar Vučić elusively told Serbian press.
For behind the cordiality displayed by the President of the European Commission on Wednesday, the European Union is showing itself to be increasingly irritated by the authoritarian excesses of the Serbian government and its “cordial” links with Vladimir Putin’s regime (see EUROPE 13695/3).
Belgrade’s long-standing refusal to align itself with the sanctions against Moscow is partly explained by the dependence of its energy supply on Russia. Since the beginning of October, the country has been desperately trying to find a way of lifting the US sanctions imposed on NIS, Serbia’s largest oil company, which is majority Russian-owned.
Belgrade also buys Russian gas at below-market prices and now faces a deadline of 31 December, when the last short-term contract signed with Moscow is due to expire.
This energy issue, which monopolised another part of Wednesday’s discussions, is symbolic of Serbia’s ambivalence. Aleksandar Vučić and Ursula von der Leyen are said to have discussed potential solutions to reduce this dependence: importing derivatives from Romania and Bulgaria or setting up a gas interconnector with North Macedonia.
It now remains to be seen whether Belgrade will agree to this strategic shift. (Original version in French by Isalia Stieffatre)