Never in the last 10 years has EU enlargement been presented as such a geopolitical necessity. On Tuesday 4 November, the European Commission published its annual reports on the progress of reforms undertaken by the various candidate countries. Some of them, starting with Montenegro and Albania, could see their efforts crowned with success by the end of the decade.
By celebrating the technical success of the process, the Commission is now demonstrating its determination to see the Union grow to 30 members by 2030 – despite the absence of any mention of the internal reforms needed to avoid paralysis in decision-making. “Each enlargement has made our Union stronger. The time has come to take action”, states the preamble to the general report.
While technically the relaunch of the enlargement process has been a success, with historic advances made in a short space of time, on a political level, things are different.
Ukraine’s advance remains blocked by the Hungarian opposition (see other news). North Macedonia and Bulgaria are at loggerheads over the rights of the Bulgarian minority. Serbia is drawing closer to Moscow and Kosovo is still not recognised as a State by five Member States. As for the revision of the European treaties to ensure the functioning of an EU with more than 30 members, this has still not been addressed by the Commission, which limits itself to talking about “responsibilities to be taken on” and “guarantees to be put in place”. The EU’s absorption capacity could soon be put to the test.
Albania. Prime Minister Edi Rama has set himself the target of closing all the negotiating chapters by the end of 2027 – an ambitious timetable, but one that the EU welcomes (see EUROPE 13710/18). Only the sets of chapters (clusters) relating to agriculture and cohesion policy have not yet been opened by Tirana, which hopes to do so next year.
“The ongoing momentum in the accession negotiation process needs to lead to faster EU-related reforms, particularly in the areas of media freedom, continued implementation of judicial reforms, and further results in the fight against organised crime, illicit drug production and trafficking, and corruption, particularly at high levels”, the report goes on to say.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jad
Montenegro. Montenegro is leading the way in its bid to join the EU. The Commission estimates that the country could close all negotiating chapters before the end of 2026 and join the EU as early as 2028. The country has opened all 33 negotiating chapters and closed seven of them, the last one dating back to 2024.
In mid-October, Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed her enthusiasm during a visit to Podgorica: “You are on track to close at least five more chapters in the accession negotiations, in addition to the four closed last year”, she welcomed (see EUROPE 13730/20).
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jae
Serbia. Belgrade, which opened 22 of the 35 negotiation chapters, has only closed two. The process has been at a standstill since December 2021, when the country opened its last cluster on environmental reforms.
As well as deploring Serbia’s poor alignment with the EU’s Common Security and Defence Policy (CSDP), the Commission is highly critical of the recent abuses of Aleksandar Vučić’s regime and its rapprochement with Moscow (see EUROPE 13731/22).
The Commission’s report considers that the country is experiencing a “partial setback” in terms of the conditions for EU membership, particularly in terms of democracy and fundamental freedoms, and must “avoid the spread of anti-EU rhetoric”.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jaf
Bosnia and Herzegovina. The country, which is not one of the most advanced on the road to accession, has been politically deadlocked since the fall of the ruling coalition and has yet to appoint a chief negotiator to lead the accession talks (see EUROPE 13730/19).
Sarajevo is increasingly plagued by internal unrest and a constitutional crisis, due to the separatist ambitions of the Bosnian Serb entity and its leader, Milorad Dodik, who rejects the authority of the Bosnian Constitutional Court (see EUROPE 13604/12).
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jag
North Macedonia. Blocked by a government that refuses to address the issue of the rights and recognition of the country’s Bulgarian minority, the process in North Macedonia is at a standstill (see EUROPE 13641/5). While welcoming the country’s alignment with the European CSDP, the Commission believes that Skopje should step up its efforts to “ensure respect for the Rule of law, in particular by guaranteeing the independence and integrity of the judiciary and strengthening the fight against corruption”.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jah
Kosovo. Although the country is not officially a candidate, the Commission is continuing to assess its progress, following the presentation of its bid in December 2022. “While Kosovo publicly reaffirms its commitment to the EU agenda, divisive domestic politics and lack of prioritisation hampered its effective implementation”, says the report. The process cannot move forward until the five EU Member States that do not currently recognise Pristina as an independent State change their position.
See the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jai
“In the Western Balkans, good neighbourly relations and regional cooperation are essential elements of the stabilisation and association and enlargement processes. It remains essential to overcome the legacy of the past and resolve the disputes arising from the conflicts of the 1990s. Bilateral issues continue to have a negative impact on the accession process of candidate countries and are holding back regional integration”, the general report also deplores.
“We must work hand in hand with our neighbours to ensure Europe’s prosperity, security and future”, said Marta Kos during the presentation of the various reports, further underlining the geopolitical dimension of this enlargement. The fear is that these countries will turn to Russia if the EU is unable to meet its commitments to them once the necessary reforms have been carried out. (Original version in French by Isalia Stieffatre)