Fractures dans l’Occident
In this essay on Donald Trump’s second term as President of the United States and the consequences of this for the European Union and the world, Nicole Gnesotto observes that the American crisis is the “tip of the iceberg of a major crisis of Western democracies, the three pillars of which are breaking into pieces: liberalism and economic openness, representative democracy and the primacy of law” (our translation throughout). Taking “their place and everywhere, growing at a terrifying rate, the religion of protectionism, the worship of order and authority and the exaltation of national preferences against the rest of the world, the privacy of strengths over respect for the law”.
“For Donald Trump does not exist just by chance: he is the fruit of a new, profoundly reactionary ideology supported by American billionaires avid for regime change, no longer just in the Middle East, but in Western democracies themselves. Their electoral and popular success is also based on the major shortcomings of globalisation, at least of this third decade, which has been more chaotic and its predecessors: massive increase in inequality of income in the wealthiest nations, the dilution of cultural identities, the anxiety of the impoverishment and downgrading of the middle classes. In Europe as well, the tectonic plates are playing their part: populism marches on, confidence in the future is being eroded, the social escalator is stopped working, foreigners and elites are becoming the traditional scapegoats of general disquiet”, this former director of the Institute for Security Studies of the European Union stresses.
“The paradox of Trumpism is that its leader, Donald Trump, is powered by intuition, unpredictable emotion, the passing reflex of the moment, while his politics seems to comply with a properly thought-out, prepared and organised plan. One would, however, be incorrect to assume that he is the puppet of a conspiracy of more or less fascist or reactionary billionaires: Donald Trump believes in the need to remove the order established by others (Democrats) and to change it for his benefit and that of the American people. Taken separately from his tantrums, mood swings and changes in position from one day to the next, his politics are based on three structural pillars: a paranoid vision of the world; predatory and messianic tendencies; an assumed authoritarianism”, the author writes. She goes on to stress that “protectionism has become […] the Bible of the Trumpist economy, with bouts of delusion such as customs duty at 145% or negotiations with no aim. Authoritarianism and populism are on the rise throughout the world, encouraged in Europe by American leaders. Nationalism is proliferating in all states, including in the form of ‘multi-alignment’, which pretends to be new to the south. As for the force of law, it has foundered in the face of the bravado, blackmail, threats direct attacks brandished by Putin, Trump and others, beyond all control”.
“Self-defence is now the priority of the Europeans. European defence policy, once a minor, conflictual, marginal matter, has become consensual, the matter of urgency, vital. It is a major revolution, as Gérard Araud observes: ‘under the star-striped banner of the Americans, Europeans have lived through the longest period of peace in European history. Today, we are being asked to leave this paradise behind’. And our departure is swift, major, sometimes astonishing, no doubt because of the dual concerns of the Europeans: being attacked by Russia and being abandoned by America”, Gnesotto notes, going on to add that “the decisions implemented since the Russian attack on Ukraine, which have been great in number and many of them spectacular, have concerned military budgets, institutional innovations, the rationalisation of the European armaments industry and even strategic doctrine”.
In the author’s opinion, however, “two extreme scenarios are already fighting to dominate the future of Europe”. “The first is that of submission without a fight to the American uncertainties. To appease Donald Trump, to avoid the risk of a defenceless Europe versus the vengeful imperialism of Vladimir Putin, the Europeans could be tempted to turn a blind eye to the authoritarian side-slipping of the United States, their conversion to protectionism, their indifference to the law, multilateralism, values. A kind of shameful ‘deal’ that would allow us to keep NATO in return for EU’s acceptance of a reshuffle of Euro-American trade. We would buy everything from them as well, weapons, cars, services, giving up our own industrial autonomy. Populism will gain credibility within Europe, which will no longer have to defend itself thanks to America, but which would gradually give up its soul, its virtue and its exemplary democracy. Pacified, defended, but populist: a mollusc Europe”, argues Gnesotto, who considers that the trade deal of this July on American customs duty of 15% on imports from Europe is already an indication of a shameful compromise of this kind.
Like others, who prefer to see the concessions of summer 2025 as a way of buying enough time to acquire the capabilities and structures that would allow Europe to manage without the Americans, the author would like to hope for a scenario of resistance. This scenario would see Europe “come together, get organised and structure itself around defence of its territory and values, against both Putin and the illiberal direction of American travel”. She concludes that “certain EU countries are rejecting this strategy, out of conviction or out of fear, and are moving to the other side, the side of the new liberal America; these include Hungary, Slovakia and possibly Italy. This is too bad for the dividing line and to bad for them. Others persist in their identity as democratic Europeans and are working for a drastic recomposition of the European order, based around a reduced EU that is nonetheless faithful to its values and its political culture. We must hope that Germany, like France, will agree to join or even lead the last of these Mohicans of democracy. Because if we do not, then nobody else, no other country or political grouping of countries in the world, will be able to resist the authoritarian wave that is on its way ”. (Olivier Jehin)
Nicole Gnesotto. Fractures dans l’Occident. Odile Jacob. ISBN: 978-2-4150-1323-3. 171 pages. €22,90
Futuribles
No fewer than three articles caught our attention in the most recent edition of Futuribles. In “Le backlash écologique qui vient”, academic researchers Marion Loisel and Nicolas Rio analyse the backlash 30 being suffered by ecological or climate change adaption policies, principally because of the injustices, sometimes real but sometimes simply imagined, caused by these increasingly unpopular measures. Challenges are very quickly made by various parties, with a greater or a lesser degree of populism, in Europe and the United States alike. One example is Donald Trump, who “based much of his 2024 campaign on the ecological backlash”, which he has been endeavouring since January to put into practice. With local elections looming in France, a brown wave may overtake the green one that was observed in 2020. Loisel and Rio therefore urge greater attention to be paid to the way transition policies are received, so that the forthcoming electoral debates can provide a platform for a new collective and democratic discussion about how to adapt France to climate change in the fairest way possible.
The sociologist, historian and emeritus professor of Tokyo’s Rikkyo University, Seiichi Kitayama, signs off a fascinating article about Japanese democracy, which is on the verge of collapse. Its ageing population is currently falling by more than 600,000 people a year. This annual decrease could reach 800,000 by 2024. “After peaking at 128 million in 2010, the total population of 123 million in 2023 could drop below the 100 million mark in 2025, falling to 87 million by 2070. The proportion of under-15s is expected to be less than 10.3% of the total population in 2030, while individuals aged 65 and above are expected to account for 30.8% the same year and 35% by 2040”, the author notes. He concludes that “the demographic question is of concern to many Japanese leaders, it is true, but it appears that it is less of a priority to them than matters of national security and defence. As for the future of Japan, the situation is a dramatic one, for as long as the country remains locked in its backward-looking, masculine or nostalgic mindset, which is incompatible with the recent advances for Japanese women and their aspirations, and with no real debate, this future will remain unresolved and therefore childless. Childless and therefore futureless”.
The same edition of Futuribles also contains an article by former European Commission civil servant Jean-François Drevet on the prospect of Greenland (56,000 people living in 2.1 million km²), which is coveted by Donald Trump for its geopolitical situation and its important untapped reserves. In it, the author describes three possible scenarios: status quo; independence; American domination. (OJ)
Manon Loisel and Nicolas Rio. Le backlash écologique qui vient. Futuribles. Edition 468, September-October 2025. ISBN: 978-9-8438-7487-1. 152 pages. €22,00
Henri Frenay
The historian Robert Belot, author of a biography of the European resistance figure and federalist Henri Frenay, sets out to highlight the role played by the founder of the Combat movement in the French political landscape immediately following the war, before engaging in the fight for European federalism. He brings together 20 texts written by Frenay, which offer “useful waymarkers to understand the logic of a political journey but also, through that journey, the history of federalism in France and Europe”. Some of these documents come from the author’s personal collection or public archives, some of which were declassified recently (national archives, the Parisian police service, the history of defence service and the historical archives of the European Union, amongst others). (OJ)
Robert Belot. Henri Frenay – Textes politiques et fédéralistes (1944-1979) Presse fédéraliste. ISBN: 978-2-4914-2922-5. 293 pages. €25,00