The wait was prolonged at the Environment Council held in Brussels on Tuesday 4 November. At the time of writing (11 pm), discussions on amending the European Climate Law to include the target of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 (compared with 1990 levels) had not resulted in any agreement. However, it had been eagerly awaited for several weeks, as it was intended to set the EU’s 2035 target before the start of COP30 on 10 November in Brazil.
Negotiations began at around 10:00 but had not yet reached a consensus by mid-evening. A number of red lines relate mainly to the 90% reduction target itself, the minimum volume of international carbon credits and the reinforced revision clause in the European Climate Law.
In an effort to reach a compromise, a number of countries – including Finland, Ireland, Cyprus and Lithuania – had already said at the start of the day that they were prepared to support the latest proposal of the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU (see EUROPE 13744/1). France, which has seen several of these requests included in the text, also said it was “comfortable with this proposal”.
On the contrary, Member States such as Italy and Poland stated that the balance between “climate ambition” and “pragmatism” had not yet been achieved.
Hungary, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are still questioning the target of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040, deeming it detrimental to European competitiveness.
Carbon credits. The highly political question of the volume and date of entry of international carbon credits – provided for in Article 6 of the Paris Agreement for the financing of decarbonisation projects abroad – which had not been decided by the European heads of state and government at the Brussels Summit on 23 October (see EUROPE 13731/5), came up again in the debates of the environment ministers.
For some, the use of these funds represents an opportunity to contribute to the global effort, as France has emphasised. Considering that “(the) disasters in Europe are not linked (to) European emissions”, but rather “to global emissions”, the French minister, Monique Barbut, defended the possibility of contributing to the reduction of international emissions and using up to 5% of international carbon credits to participate in the transition of countries in the South.
France’s position is shared by Italy, Poland and Portugal, which have also called for the threshold to be raised and supported an earlier entry into force in 2031.
On the other hand, countries such as Spain, Luxembourg, Germany and Finland came out in favour of the European Commission’s initial proposal (see EUROPE 13672/1) to limit use to 3% from 2036, and then only if necessary.
Revision clause. In its latest compromise proposal (see EUROPE 13744/1), the Danish Presidency strengthened the revision clause of the European Climate Law in order to take into account various concerns linked to the challenges of competitiveness, the evolution of energy prices and the effective contribution of carbon sinks.
In addition, this proposal made explicit reference to the possible revision of the “intermediate 2040 target”, prior to carbon neutrality in 2050. This revision can be carried out every five years, in addition to a Commission report requested every two years.
The European Commissioner for Climate Change, Wopke Hoekstra, said that this reinforced revision clause “already goes a long way”, and pointed out that, by virtue of its right of initiative, the Commission can present new legislative proposals at any time.
“Explicitly mentioning the revision of the 2040 target in the revision clause would send out the wrong signal, because uncertainty about this target and the underlying architecture could send investors in the wrong direction”, he explained earlier today.
During their respective speeches, Spain, the Netherlands and Luxembourg made similar comments.
Poland, the Czech Republic, Estonia and Bulgaria, on the other hand, welcomed this reinforced revision.
NDC. According to the Danish Presidency’s initial objective, an agreement on the 2040 target would make it possible to calculate directly the reduction target for 2035 expected in the EU’s ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC), before the start of COP30 on Monday 10 November.
A range could finally be presented. The figure of between 66.25% and 72.5% reduction in emissions by 2035 was announced as an indication at the end of the first extraordinary EU ‘Environment’ Council on 18 September (see EUROPE 13712/2; 13717/9). It could possibly be tightened, but any decision on the NDC requires unanimity. (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry and Pauline Denys)