While the Danish Presidency of the Council of the European Union believes that “all the ingredients are there” to reach an agreement on the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, positions between Member States remained divergent on Monday 3 November, on the eve of another extraordinary Environment Council in Brussels. Pressure is mounting as the EU is due to present a target derived from this 2040 objective before the start of COP30 in Brazil on 10 November.
A new compromise text was circulated on Sunday 2 November in an attempt to satisfy everyone’s demands. But a number of sensitive points remain unresolved. In particular, this is still the case for the percentage and entry date for the use of international carbon credits (Article 6 of the Paris Agreement) to contribute to the 90% emissions reduction target (compared with 1990), as initially defined by the European Commission (see EUROPE 13672/1).
Based on the guidelines formulated by the European Council on 23 October (see EUROPE 13737/3), the Danish Presidency pointed out that no specific proposal on the subject of carbon credits (enabling decarbonisation projects abroad to be financed) had been formulated. This means that this part remains in brackets in the text and will have to be negotiated directly between Ministers.
The Commission proposed a cap of 3% on the contribution of international carbon credits. It could possibly be increased to 5% to meet the demands of countries such as Poland, France and Italy.
Revision clause. The latest compromise text presented by the Danish Presidency further strengthens the revision clause of the European Climate Law, opening the door to a possible “adjustment” of the 2040 target every five years (after each Global Stocktake of the Paris Agreement), in addition to an evaluation report every two years by the European Commission (see EUROPE 13739/4).
“This clause represents an element of compromise”, explained a European diplomat. And they added: “There is a political reality. The world is changing and uncertainty reigns. (...) We need to strike a balance between the need for predictability (for European companies, Editor’s note) and the need to be able to adapt to events”.
This balance can meet the expectations of Member States such as France. Some countries, such as Spain, support the Commission’s proposal, but would like the revision clause to remain clearly defined and not be used to revise the 90% reduction target.
Sweden, on the other hand, is pragmatic and believes that an agreement must be reached before COP30, even if it means accepting difficult concessions. The priority is to have an amended ‘Climate Law’, even with a revision clause, rather than run the risk of not having one at all.
The aim is to accept the current version of the text as a compromise.
LULUCF. The latest compromise text provides for a greater contribution from the land and forestry sector (LULUCF) to the 2040 target, subject to specific conditions of application.
The text now mentions the circular bioeconomy, natural variability and the uncertainties associated with climate-related disasters.
It allows Member States to use their surplus carbon sinks to offset emissions from other sectors, provided that these transfers are not to the detriment of other economic activities.
At the request of France, supported by several other countries, this flexibility is accompanied by an environmental guarantee to ensure that shortfalls in the LULUCF sector cannot be made up by reductions in other sectors.
COP30. The stakes are high, since an agreement on the 2040 target would make it possible to calculate directly the reduction target for 2035 expected in the EU’s ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC), before the start of COP30 in Brazil on Monday 10 November.
Unlike the agreement on the 2040 target in the European Climate Law, which requires a qualified majority, the EU’s NDC must be adopted unanimously by the Member States.
“This makes the task all the more complicated”, admitted one European diplomat. Nonetheless, the aim remains to turn the indicative emissions reduction range of between 66.25% and 72.5% into a “real NDC” (see EUROPE 13721/10).
The Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU has indicated that it is working towards this, but has not communicated a possible alternative in the event that negotiations fail before the COP.
To see the latest Danish compromise: https://aeur.eu/f/j9q (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry and Pauline Denys)