Unsurprisingly, no concrete decision on the scope of the 2040 greenhouse gas emissions reduction target was taken at the close of the European Council on Thursday 23 October.
Nevertheless, by agreeing to its guidelines, the European Council has enabled the environment ministers to resume negotiations on the climate target, as planned, at an extraordinary sectoral Council meeting on 4 November.
“Looking ahead to 2040 we are setting a clear and realistic path to achieve our climate targets by making sure our transition is just and affordable for citizens and businesses” - welcomed the President of the European Council, António Costa.
Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever, on the other hand, described the debate as “unsatisfactory”. “No real conclusions have been drawn from the rather long, let’s say wordy text”, he told the press.
A “pragmatic” 2040 target. On their arrival at the European Council, a number of leaders were already urging “pragmatism”.
Several made it clear that their support for the 2040 target would not be forthcoming without a series of commitments from the European Commission in favour of competitiveness and European industry.
For France, which was one of the first countries to request that negotiations on the 2040 target be postponed until 23 October at the level of heads of state or government, it is vital to have a series of “enabling conditions”.
Paris has long been calling for the principle of “technological neutrality” to be respected in post-2030 European legislation.
Furthermore, at the ‘Competitiveness’ Council on 29 September, the outgoing French Minister for Industry and Energy, Marc Ferracci, set out the need to review the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) before the end of the year to help European industry face up to international competition (see EUROPE 13719/5).
At the end of the summit, the German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, reinforced this request by saying that the CBAM made “no sense” if it “damaged European competitiveness”.
ETS2 and carbon absorption. The conclusions also address the concerns of many Member States regarding the entry into force of the revision of the EU Emissions Trading System (‘ETS2’) - scheduled for 2027 - as well as those relating to the shrinking of natural carbon sinks.
On this last point, the EU27 want their contribution to the 2040 target to be “realistic”.
On his arrival, the Finnish Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, made “the enormous challenge of the land use sector (LULUCF)” his “main concern”. Compensating for the absorptions that depended on this sector would be “very costly and difficult”, he stressed. And he added that: “The Commission (...) has come a long way towards our position”.
In a letter sent on 20 October, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, anticipated these concerns (see EUROPE 13734/13).
International carbon credits. As expected, the leaders also failed to agree on a precise percentage for the inclusion of international carbon credits to meet the 2040 target. This system, which stems from Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, makes it possible to include the financing of decarbonisation projects abroad in domestic climate efforts.
The European Commission is proposing a contribution of three percentage points to enable a 90% emissions reduction target (compared with 1990) to be achieved in a more flexible way. Countries such as Poland and Italy want to increase this contribution, while others such as Germany and the Netherlands support limited use.
The Council’s final conclusions simply stress the need to define “an adequate level of high-quality international credits”.
Revision clause. In their conclusions, the leaders also agreed on the need to attach “a revision clause” to the 2040 target, in order to take account of the “latest scientific evidence, technological advances, and evolving challenges to and opportunities for the EU’s global competitiveness”.
The ‘European Climate Law’, which will have to be amended to include the 2040 target, already includes a revision clause stating that the European Commission is empowered to produce a report within six months of each global stocktake of the Paris Agreement (every five years), which may be accompanied by legislative proposals if necessary.
To see the European Council’s conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/j44 (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry and Pauline Denys with the editorial staff)