Expected on 15 October under the Pact on Migration and Asylum and its ‘solidarity cycle’ component, and then around 4 November, the Commission’s first report on Member States under migratory pressure and the aid to which they are entitled through the solidarity pool created by the Pact could now be published next week.
This first report, which inaugurates the Pact’s first solidarity cycle with Member States’ aid commitments to be deployed the following year in the event of crises, will be presented against a backdrop of a sharp fall in irregular arrivals in the EU.
The latest estimates from Frontex have confirmed a 22% drop in irregular entries over the first nine months of 2025, even though the western and central Mediterranean routes from Libya remain active.
While these reductions can be attributed to the agreements the EU has signed with third countries such as Tunisia and Egypt, or to its successive reforms over the last few years, the subject of migration remains highly sensitive. And it remains just as difficult to “show” public opinion “that EU policy works” and is even proving “increasingly effective”, deplores one diplomat.
The Commission is said to have decided to let a number of deadlines pass, such as the European Summit on 23 October and the Dutch elections, so as not to ‘hysterise’ the subject. Above all, however, it would have liked to give itself a little more time for its consultations with the member countries, so as not to put them directly in the firing line with this very first exercise.
This first report will also be marked by varying degrees of tension between certain front-line countries, such as Italy and Greece, and the so-called secondary movement countries, such as Germany, Sweden, Belgium and France. The latter countries would like the first two to take over the transfer of “Dublined” individuals, meaning that an asylum seeker is sent back to the Member State that registered his or her very first application.
“The Germans are nervous; tensions have been high with the Italians and Greeks on this issue, and there is also the pressure exerted by the AfD in the internal debate”, adds this diplomatic source.
On 14 October, these same countries publicly criticised the failure to comply with the current Dublin rules (see EUROPE 13730/4). These rules have been reformed by the Pact and by mid-2026, so-called ‘Dublin’ transfers will even be automatic, as frontline countries will no longer be able to refuse return notifications.
The Commission will therefore have to take these balances into account. The Pact is asking for two things: a proposal for a decision to categorise Member States according to their situation, as provided for in the AMMR Regulation on asylum and migration management.
There are three categories: - under migratory pressure; - exposed to a risk of migratory pressure in the coming year; - facing a serious migratory situation. They are based on precise criteria such as the size of the country, the number of asylum applications, irregular arrivals and rescue operations at sea.
This would allow France and Germany, for example, to be considered as being ‘under pressure’ and also to benefit from solidarity. The second thing is a draft decision by the Council of the EU setting out the general figures and the respective breakdown which the member countries will then have to accept.
The Pact has set the minimum number of people who can be relocated between member countries at 30,000. As far as solidarity is concerned, it will be possible to choose between relocation, financial support, material aid and no longer asking countries to take back their ‘Dublined’ individuals. The EU Council will have to approve these two tools this year, in principle at the Home Affairs Council in early December.
Adoptions in December. This EU Council will be all the more important for the Danish Presidency as it will be seeking to have three other pieces of legislation adopted at the same time: on returns, ‘safe countries of origin’ and ‘safe third countries’.
On the subject of returns, the Commission is expected to propose a new compromise on the principle of compulsory mutual recognition of decisions in the near future, and could still opt for compulsory recognition at a later date, accompanied by exemptions.
With regard to return ‘hubs’ in third countries, the idea of ‘Europeanising’ these centres and establishing them at EU level does not meet with consensus either, with some countries fearing that this would commit the EU legally and financially, whereas they do not want this type of centre.
The Danish Presidency will be looking for other ‘innovative solutions’. In mid-November, it plans to hold a discussion on places of safety in third countries. Raised in July, the idea is to transfer migrants rescued at sea to willing third countries.
Link to the AMMR Regulation and its recitals 12 and 12a: https://aeur.eu/f/jaa (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)