The EU27 home affairs ministers will meet in Luxembourg on Tuesday 14 October to press ahead with the regulation on the return of persons residing illegally in the EU.
To this end, they will focus on one of the most sensitive points of the regulation, namely the mandatory mutual recognition of return decisions issued by Member States, which is being contested by countries affected by secondary movements of migrants.
They will also discuss the future of Frontex and the new tasks that could be entrusted to it with a view to its new mandate in 2026, and take stock of the general state of health of the Schengen area.
However, no decision will be taken at this meeting, as the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU had to withdraw from the agenda on 8 October a proposal to adopt a regulation on the removal of online child sexual abuse material, due to a lack of support (see EUROPE 13726/21).
Returns. The Danish Presidency wants to be in a position to have the regulation proposed by the Commission last March approved in December. To do this, it will be seeking the ministers’ approval for the changes made to its first compromise on the mandatory mutual recognition of decisions handed down by national authorities, which would oblige an authority in one Member State to enforce a decision handed down by another if the person in question is intercepted on its territory.
For countries faced with secondary movements of migrants, this could represent an administrative overload and these countries could also consider that their systems and decisions are more efficient than those of their European partners.
The Danish Presidency has taken these factors into account and offered ways out of applying this compulsory recognition (see EUROPE 13724/3, 13715/7), but Copenhagen believes that a binding decision is also a sign of effectiveness, as do the so-called ‘front-line’ countries, sums up the same source.
As this point is perhaps the most complex in the regulation, even more so than the point on return hubs in third countries – which is not binding on the EU27 – the Danish Presidency could therefore make significant progress towards an agreement if it obtains approval for its compromise proposals on Tuesday.
Syrians. In June, the ministers already discussed how to regulate the return of Syrians present in the EU to their country of origin (see EUROPE 13659/1), with some countries, such as Austria, advocating forced returns while “the vast majority of Member States” still favour voluntary returns, due to a lack of certainty about the situation in the country, according to a European source.
According to the UNHCR, there are an estimated 1.37 million Syrian asylum seekers and refugees in Europe, including around 1.2 million in EU Member States, states a working paper.
The UNHCR estimates that the number of Syrians planning to return to Syria from the EU is considerably lower than in neighbouring countries, due to their more favourable situation within the EU.
Since 8 December 2024, the IOM has facilitated three returns from Luxembourg, three from the Netherlands and three from Portugal.
In the EU, 12,365 return decisions were issued to Syrian nationals between January and June 2025, an increase of 12% compared to the same period in 2024, and 3,135 Syrians returned to Syria following a return decision, three times more than in the same period a year earlier (1,025). Between January and June 2025, voluntary returns increased even more (2,905 compared with 240).
Frontex does not currently support forced returns to Syria, but between 17 March and 15 September 2025, 3,398 voluntary returns were made to Syria with the agency’s support.
At lunch, the ministers will be asked to answer two questions: “What cooperation do they currently have with the Syrian authorities, particularly with regard to the voluntary and forced return of people who have been the subject of a return decision? What are your views on the challenges of returning persons who pose a serious threat to public order, national security and safety, as well as convicted offenders?”
Frontex. The ministers will discuss the future of the agency, which, according to Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, could employ 30,000 permanent staff over the next few years.
For some countries, this will be an opportunity to warn against duplicating missions, for example with Europol in the fight against crime, and also to say that “it is not enough to simply reach a target figure, but we must ask ourselves whether this really meets the operational needs” of the member countries.
The EU countries have an interest in strengthening the agency’s missions to support them in return operations or to carry out third-country-to-third-country return operations, but do not necessarily want Frontex to spread itself too thinly with too many new remits. Frontex could also do more work on hybrid threats, such as protecting critical infrastructures or managing the instrumentalisation of migration.
Solidarity. The EU27 home affairs ministers will officially only have a briefing at the end of the day on the implementation of the Pact on Migration and Asylum and its solidarity pool.
On 15 October, the Commission could publish its highly sensitive first report on countries facing migratory pressures, which the other Member States would then have to alleviate by making pledges of solidarity in terms of receiving asylum seekers, supporting returns or providing financial support.
This is the principle behind the solidarity pool included in the Pact on Migration and Asylum. The Commission has taken a number of factors into account when calculating this pressure, including the number of arrivals, returns and positive asylum decisions. The number of rescue operations at sea carried out by Member States has also been taken into account, says one source, as this is a mandatory requirement of the ‘Pact’.
A number of countries are said to have expressed their wants in advance of this report that Greece and Italy should be able to benefit from the solidarity mechanism, if they comply fully with their ‘Dublin’ obligations.
Countries such as Germany, Sweden, France and the Netherlands have never concealed the fact that solidarity with frontline countries can only be shown if they comply with the Dublin obligations, i.e. taking back asylum seekers registered in their country and countering secondary movements. However, these countries have already said publicly in the past that this was not the case.
However, the report may not contain any specific recommendations on ‘Dublin’. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)