On Tuesday 22 July, the national experts of the Council of the European Union discussed the Danish Presidency’s first attempt at a compromise on amending the EU’s ‘Climate Law’ to include the interim target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2040, before achieving carbon neutrality in 2050.
This revision, once validated by the Member States, will serve as the basis for calculating the 2035 target that the EU must present before the COP30 in Belém (Brazil) in November.
The Danish Presidency’s document, consulted by Agence Europe and examined by the national experts, does not contain any significant changes to the European Commission’s proposal (see EUROPE 13672/1).
LULUCF sector. It does, however, strengthen the reference to natural carbon absorption, as requested by a number of Member States. The compromise underlines the “central role” of the LULUCF (Land use, land use change and forestry) sector “in a sustainable and circular bioeconomy” and its potential to “deliver long-term climate benefits”.
Among the ‘facilitating’ conditions, the compromise text also proposes taking into account “the effects of differences in the age structure of forests” and “natural disturbances” in the LULUCF sector, which would be welcomed by several countries. Others are calling for the sector’s net target itself to be tackled, since the Commission’s 2024 impact study on the 90% emissions reduction target (see EUROPE 13344/1) is based, for one of its scenarios, on an increase in LULUCF absorptions of 316 Mt CO2e.
In a non-paper consulted by Agence Europe, France points out that it is increasingly unlikely that this target will be met, given the deterioration in the carbon absorption capacity of Europe’s forests under the pressure of climate change. The country therefore considers that overestimating the contribution of the LULUCF sector to achieving the 2040 net target “presents considerable risks and uncertainties”.
Flexibilities. According to our information, questions also remained concerning the issue of “flexibilities”, in particular the use of international carbon credits to achieve the 90% reduction target (see EUROPE 13682/11).
On this point, the latest Danish Presidency document simply states that in making the use of international credits operational, “the Commission should take into account the need to ensure a level playing field between Member States”.
The text then adds that the flexibilities requested “between” sectors to compensate for potential difficulties in achieving the reduction targets may also take place “within” the same sector. This is a point that also raises questions from the national experts, asking for further clarification.
Also for the first time at a technical level, some countries that do not support the Commission’s proposal (see EUROPE 13672/2, 13678/13) have asked for the 90% emissions reduction target to be placed in square brackets in the text. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)