The European Commission unveiled its Communication on the EU’s target of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 on Tuesday 6 February in Strasbourg, against a backdrop of protests by farmers and more widespread questioning of environmental standards and the objectives of the European Green Deal in the run-up to the European elections in June.
A few hours before the Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, came to discuss this 2040 target with MEPs at a plenary session in Strasbourg (see other news), the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, announced that the Commission was withdrawing its proposal to halve the use of pesticides by 2030 (see other news), in line with farmers’ demands.
The European Commission has also taken this into account in the final version of its communication, as certain elements of the language and layout attempt to “soften” the binding aspect of indicative measures for certain sectors, such as agriculture, in order to achieve a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040.
Emphasis on ‘just transition’ principle
The Commission therefore included a paragraph specifically devoted to the ‘just transition’ at a higher level than in a previous version of its Communication (see EUROPE 13339/1).
“The effects of the transition will vary between sectors and regions, depending on their dependence on specific activities”, the Communication points out, highlighting the Social Climate Fund financed by the Emissions Trading System (ETS), which “will mobilise €87 billion to support vulnerable households, transport users and micro-enterprises”.
On this subject, Mr Hoekstra told a press conference that he was absolutely convinced that “the vast majority of our citizens sees the effects of climate change (...) But is also worried about what that implies for their livelihood. So we need to reconcile climate action with competitiveness and a just transition”.
Reassuring the agricultural sector
More specifically, with regard to the role of the agricultural sector in reducing emissions, an earlier version of the communication explicitly stated that agriculture would become “the largest source of emissions as other sectors decarbonise”, but that it could play an increasing role in the green transition. The final version makes no mention of this.
Nor does it include a reduction in GHG emissions other than CO2 in the agricultural sector “by at least 30% in 2040 compared to 2015” (with solutions such as the production of biomethane from manure or optimising fertiliser spreading using precision agriculture) and the possibility for the agriculture and forestry sectors “to become climate neutral by 2035”, taking into account in particular the increased capacity of soils and forests to store more carbon.
A target that does not go beyond 90%
The target in the Communication as such does not go beyond a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions compared with 1990 levels, whereas the “preferred” scenario of the impact study carried out by the Commission (see EUROPE 13337/6) analyses a reduction of between 90 and 95%.
This fixed target “is a deliberate choice, which gives clarity” and enables “ambitions to be linked with the art of the possible”, explained Commissioner Hoekstra.
This 90% reduction target calls for EU GHG emissions in 2040 to be below 850 MtCO2-eq and for carbon removals (from the atmosphere through the absorption of carbon from land-based and industrial sources) to reach up to 400 MtCO2.
High investment demand
To enable this scenario to be realised, higher annual investment needs will be required in 2031-2040 compared to reduction options below 90%, but lower in 2041-2050, with faster investments for the deployment of new low-carbon technologies such as hydrogen production by electrolysis, carbon capture and use and carbon removal in industry between 2031 and 2040 (see EUROPE 13343/1).
The Commission has also published its specific strategy for industrial carbon management in the EU (see other news).
In terms of investment, the Communication states that “an additional 1.5% of GDP compared to the decade 2011-2020 should be invested each year in the transition, shifting resources away from less sustainable uses such as fossil fuel subsidies” and that “strong mobilisation” of the private sector is necessary.
“We need to look at future investments that will enable us to be more independent, to spend less on fossil fuels, to have an impact on the health of the population (...), to enable farmers to obtain better harvests because the soil will be healthier”, the Executive Vice-President of the European Commission, Maroš Šefčovič, told the press.
Promoting EU climate diplomacy
The Commission is also betting on stepping up the EU’s climate diplomacy to set an example, contribute to achieving the objectives of the Paris Agreement and deepen its international partnerships.
Speaking in the European Parliament, Mr Hoekstra said that the Commission would set up a dedicated task force to help other jurisdictions replicate the success of the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) or improve their own carbon pricing mechanisms, in synergy with other EU climate policy instruments, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM).
Extending current climate policies
The Communication recalls that the European Commission’s objective is to launch a political debate and gather information to launch the post-2030 legislative framework.
It also highlights the fact that, according to the Commission’s impact study, an extension of current policies until 2040 would already lead to an 88% reduction by 2040.
“At this stage, the stability and full implementation of the legislative framework in place to achieve the 2030 climate and energy targets is a prerequisite for the EU to stay on course for the 2040 target with a view to achieving climate neutrality in 2050”, it stresses.
Regarding the absence of any mention of a phase-out of fossil fuels in the text, the European Commissioner for Energy, Kadri Simson, acknowledged that “for the moment, there is still a need in certain sectors”, but that “overall, we will reduce our consumption of fossil fuels by 80% (in 2040) compared to 2021, which is a significant step forward”.
To see the communication: https://aeur.eu/f/aq9
To see the impact study: https://aeur.eu/f/aqa (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)