On 6 February, the European Commission will publish its long-awaited communication on the 2040 climate target, and for several weeks now there have been calls for a high level of ambition: a reduction of at least 90% in net greenhouse gas emissions (compared to 1990) (see EUROPE 13336/11).
This is particularly true of Denmark, which had called for this target to be pushed through at the COP28 in Dubai, as presented by the Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, in autumn 2023 (see EUROPE 13308/30).
Pursuing the 1.5°C target
In a letter published on Thursday 25 January, 11 Member States (Austria, Bulgaria, Germany, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Ireland, Luxembourg, the Netherlands and Portugal) welcomed the conclusions of this latest COP, “in particular the agreement to accelerate emission reductions towards net zero by 2050 (...) to keep the 1.5°C objective within reach”.
To achieve this and persuade other countries to join the commitment, the signatory countries encourage the European Commission, in its communication, to recommend “an ambitious EU climate target for 2040”, without specifying a percentage figure.
“The target should be in line with the long-term temperature goal of 1.5 °C and take into account the principles in the European Climate Law, such as best available science, cost-effectiveness, a fair and just transition and the costs of inaction, as well as the advice of the European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change”, the letter states.
The preferred scenario is to reduce emissions by at least 90%
In a provisional version of the impact study on this target for 2040, as seen by EUROPE, the European Commission is attempting to identify the most appropriate level of reduction in order to aim for net zero by 2050.
While the study assesses the different levels of net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2040 and the sectoral pathways for moving from 2030 to climate neutrality in 2050, “it does not assess the post-2030 energy and climate policy framework, which will have to be put in place at a later date”.
Under an unchanged policy framework, the study recognises that theoretical net GHG emissions would amount to -88% in 2040 compared with 1990, and therefore considers this level of reduction to be the climate target “reference” for 2040.
The study then analyses three emission reduction scenarios:
-up to 80% (objective compatible with the linear trajectory between the existing target of 55% reduction in 2030 and carbon neutrality in 2050);
-at least 85% up to 90%;
-at least 90% up to 95%.
According to the analysis, the third option proves to be “the most effective in achieving the objective of climate neutrality by 2050” and “ensuring EU security of energy supply and strategic autonomy”.
However, this option will require even greater attention than the other two to ensure a “just transition” for citizens.
Importance of carbon capture
While, according to the study, a reduction of at least 90% does not require a major increase in effort compared with current policies, the option does rely on “a fully developed carbon management industry by 2040”. It includes carbon capture, which should represent 344 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent captured annually by 2040, as well as “greater production and consumption of e-fuels than in the second scenario in order to further decarbonise the energy mix”.
In terms of investment, the study indicates that the three scenarios imply annual investment requirements in the energy system (excluding transport) of more than 3% of GDP for the period 2031-2050. This represents an additional 1.5 to 2 percentage points of GDP compared with the average investment in energy systems over the period 2011-2020.
The electricity sector (generation and grid) dominates supply-side investment needs, “given the increasing electrification of the economy”.
To see the letter from the 11 Member States: https://aeur.eu/f/alp (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)