The European Commission will unveil the final version of its communication on the target for reducing net greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2040 on Tuesday 6 February in Strasbourg. While the 90% target supported in a draft version (see EUROPE 13339/1) is welcomed by some in the political world and the renewable energy sector, the copy is nonetheless judged to be rather unambitious, according to some, because it does not take sufficient account of the diversity of technical solutions for a definitive phase-out of fossil fuels by placing “excessive” emphasis on carbon capture and storage.
The aim of this communication on the 2040 target is to “guarantee the corresponding overall GHG emissions budget for the EU by 2050” and to fuel a political debate that will help EU decision-makers, Member States and stakeholders to make investment decisions in the last decade before carbon neutrality.
On the eve of the document’s official publication, this debate has already begun, with a number of people raising their questions and concerns, particularly about the importance attached by the European Commission to carbon capture and storage (CCS), both natural and industrial, in achieving its 2040 target.
A final strategy specifically for industrial carbon management will also be unveiled on Tuesday 6 February.
Carbon capture and storage
The Commission’s impact assessment scenario of a 90-95% net reduction in emissions sets a target of 240 megatonnes of CO2 per year (MtCO2) by 2030, compared with the current target of 50 megatonnes per year.
CO2 Value Europe, the European association representing the carbon capture and utilisation (CCU) community, recently revealed in a study that, by 2050, the EU will be able to capture at least 320 MtCO2, mainly from biogenic, atmospheric and process emissions, and convert 55% of it into products (CCU), with the rest stored underground (CCS).
“By producing 30% of chemicals, 18% of fuels, 76% of ceramics and 100% of precast concrete, the CCU will reduce the EU’s industrial emissions by 20% by 2050. The use of CCU fuels in the maritime and aviation sectors will reduce their emissions by 35% and 38% respectively”, summarised CO2 Value Europe on Monday 5 February.
According to Irene Di Paduwa, Policy Director at Bioenergy Europe, the Commission’s target is considered achievable. “However, there is also a question about nature-based solutions and the fact that carbon sinks are shrinking and we have forests that are less and less resistant to climate change. So we must also be concerned about this and question how forest management is integrated in the communication”, she added.
With regard to the 2040 target, some actors in the sector are more in favour of an additional target for carbon capture that would fall outside the 90% reduction target for net GHG emissions. They are also considering how to make onshore CCS commercial and acceptable to society.
“Let’s consider CCS only for hard to abate sectors, but let’s already make the most of the renewable solutions that exist”, said Valérie Séjourné, Managing Director of Solar Heat Europe.
Michael Bloss MEP (Greens/EFA, German) is more categorical, saying that the technologies for use and storage (CCUS) “don’t even exist yet”. “We do not have a CCS that filters 100% of the CO2 from emissions. Some even say that only 90% of this can be achieved. It’s more a question of magic than of a technological solution. This will be a huge gift for the fossil fuel lobbies”, he asserted.
Pascal Canfin (Renew Europe, French), on the other hand, advocated not closing the door on any new technological solution. “At some point, you have to stop wondering whether it’s realistic or not, you just have to do it. We need to trust our collective innovation and do this in parallel with our other technologies. After that, may the best man win”, he said on Friday 2 February.
Diversity of technologies
The heating and cooling sector is particularly concerned about the role of heating (which accounts for around 50% of the EU’s energy demand) in decarbonising Europe’s energy system, and regrets that too much attention is being paid to electrification.
Sanjeev Kumar, head of policy at Egec, the European Geothermal Energy Council, believes that a 90% emissions reduction target by 2040 requires additional targets, particularly for different types of renewable energy, such as bioenergy, solar heating and geothermal energy. “It is necessary to establish numerous sub-objectives (...), otherwise investors will have no guarantee as to which technologies to choose for their investments. So what will happen is that no investment will be made”.
Moving away from fossil fuels
Part of the sector is also asking the European Commission for a real strategy to move away from fossil fuels. “There is a target of a 70% reduction in the use of fossil fuels by 2040. However, fossil fuels account for the bulk of energy consumption, so it would be a good idea to clarify how the Commission plans to end subsidies in the first instance and then move on to phasing out fossil fuels”, explained Irene di Padua.
Several NGOs are calling on the Commission to include a gradual phase-out of fossil fuels in the 2040 climate plans.
In its draft version, the communication “proposes some specific figures on gas reduction, but they are still not aligned with climate neutrality by 2040 or 2050”, regretted Greenpeace Europe in a press release. “Furthermore, the assessment does not clearly indicate whether a reduction in the use of fossil gases is accompanied by an increase in biogas or biomethane”, pointed out the NGO. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys and Nithya Paquiry)