A week after the European Commission confirmed the objective of reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels (see EUROPE 13672/1), the European environment and climate ministers met under the Danish Presidency in Aalborg on Thursday 10 July for an informal meeting.
The meeting opened with an initial working session aimed at defining the broad outlines of the European position ahead of COP30, which will be held from 10 to 21 November in Belém (Brazil).
This meeting also comes a day after the European Parliament (see EUROPE 13677/3) rejected an urgency procedure on the 2040 target at its plenary session in Strasbourg, a text for which the role of rapporteur was given to an MEP from the far-right Patriots for Europe (PfE) group, which is opposed to the -90% target.
However, the Danish Presidency of the EU Council is still aiming for an agreement in the EU Council on 18 September, which is a necessary condition for the EU to be able to submit its nationally determined contribution (NDC), which should cover the period up to 2035 and be consistent with the EU’s new 2040 target, in time for COP30.
No formal discussion on NDC. When asked about the agenda for the meeting on his arrival, Danish Climate Minister Lars Aagaard made it clear that the NDCs would not be discussed directly.
The Danish Presidency, while respecting the role of the European Parliament, first wants to obtain a qualified majority in the EU Council on the 2040 target. “The plan has always been, and still is, to reach agreement within the Council. The plan is still to take a decision on the 2040 target, and then, from there, to extract the NDC needed for the 2035 target and for the United Nations process”, Minister Aagard added.
And he confirmed that “the ambition is still there” for an agreement on 18 September.
Dissent among Member States. However, not everyone agrees with this approach. The Hungarian minister, Anikó Raisz, reiterated her country’s opposition to linking the 2040 target and the 2035 NDC: “We really want to separate the issue of NDCs, our commitments to the United Nations and the 2040 target, which is a legally binding issue within the European Union”.
France, for its part, has a nuanced position. Minister Agnès Pannier-Runacher reminded the press that France’s climate ambitions remained high, but stressed that they needed to be accompanied by a clear industrial strategy.
On NDC, she believes that there is a “realistic space” between a linear trajectory (66.5%) and the level required to reach -90% in 2040 (around 72%). “We need an ambitious but credible target”, she insisted, calling for a coherent action plan for funding and competitiveness guarantees.
“It’s not enough for me to come up with an ambitious figure and then say: you’re on your own to implement these policies”, she also declared.
For their part, Germany, Sweden and Denmark support the method proposed by the Commission of a target for 2040, followed by an intermediate objective for 2035.
“We think that it is preferable to process this information and present a very strong NDC before COP30”, said the Swedish minister, Romina Pourmokhtari, upon her arrival.
European leadership. In an international context marked by the US retreat on climate commitments and by multilateralism being called into question, several ministers called for Europe to maintain its ambitions.
According to a preparatory document consulted by Agence Europe, the Danish Presidency is also calling on the EU to defend a “negotiated outcome” on the collective level of ambition of national contributions and to become actively involved in the adoption of global adaptation indicators, which is Brazil’s stated priority for COP30.
Lars Aagaard pointed out that “one of the greatest threats to Europe’s security, strategic autonomy and competitiveness is our deep dependence on fossil fuels”, linking the green transition, energy sovereignty and the EU’s geopolitical position.
While several ministers acknowledged that there was still little room for manoeuvre regarding an agreement on the 2040 target, and the subsequent presentation of an NDC, all agreed that the EU’s climate credibility at international level was at stake in Belém.
The European Commissioner for Climate Action, Wopke Hoekstra, for his part, said he was “absolutely” confident that the EU Council would be able to reach a conclusion on the 2040 target before COP30. (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)