The Danish Presidency of the Council of the European Union has just seven useful weeks left. Then, on 1 January 2026, a small Mediterranean island which is home to nearly 940,000 people and which has been divided into two by a demarcation line for more than 50 years, will follow on from a large State from central Europe and a medium-sized State from north-eastern Europe. The trio of the Polish, Danish and Cypriot Presidencies has been active once before, between July 2011 and December 2012, but the context was very different. The Eurozone, especially Greece but also Cyprus, was hit by the financial crisis, but our continent was at peace.
The Cypriot Presidency has not yet published its programme. However, one can safely predict that the dominant theme of the next semester will continue to be the strategic autonomy of Europe, from the military and economic point of view, and maintaining support for Ukraine. This will no doubt be joined by the wave of legislative simplification and the forthcoming multi-annual financial framework as well as any unfinished business of the outgoing Presidency. Where are the differences likely to lie? The State’s geopolitical position will prompt it to prefer to direct European governance more towards the Mediterranean, the Balkans and the Middle East, where peace still cannot be taken for granted.
In a lengthy interview with Euronews on 24 October, the President of the Republic of Cyprus (who is also its head of government), Nikos Christodoulides, provided some very interesting information. Elected to office by a sizeable majority in February 2023, this historian by training possesses a rich political culture and a solid network of relationships in his own region and within the EU. On 13 October, he was invited to Sharm el-Sheikh among an array of powerful leaders, including the Presidents of the United States and of the European Council (see EUROPE 13729/12). For Cyprus is a very close neighbour of Egypt, Israel, Gaza, Lebanon, Jordan… and, in particular, its President has taken the trouble to learn what makes each of these countries tick.
On Eurnews, Nikos Christodoulides made a passionate case for the European Union to have an increased role in the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which he feels will be impossible without a two-State solution. Cyprus is capable of being actively involved in the peace process, for instance as a humanitarian corridor and, in the future, by offering transport logistics for the reconstruction of Gaza.
The Cypriot President went on to argue that Europe needs legal immigration and that the problem of illegal immigration needs to be dealt with through increased cooperation with the countries of origin. He is fervently in favour of speeding up the enlargement of the EU, starting with Montenegro. He also took position in favour of continued solidarity with Ukraine, a country that concerns all Europeans.
Far from shying away from the challenge of the future multi-annual financial framework, he said that this should clearly reflect the political priorities of the EU, in such a way that every citizen can understand it. Rejecting austerity policies in all their forms, he argued in favour of a responsible fiscal policy and bringing down both public debt and unemployment. In Cyprus, the latter stands at less than 5%.
The island, which has been a member of the Eurozone since 2008, is getting ready to join the Schengen Zone. The GDP per head of population remains below the European average and EU aid is still very welcome. Cyprus imports considerably more (60%) from the rest of the EU than it exports to it (30%). Having been on the brink of bankruptcy in 2012, the country recovered with the support of the EU, the ECB and the IMF. Its economy is largely based on the tertiary sector and tourism, which is in rude health. Its merchant navy is the third-largest European fleet. The country is open to foreign investors and has not entirely abandoned the reprehensible practice of ‘golden visas’ (see EUROPE 13712/11).
Cypriot education enjoys a good reputation and the country participates in the programme Erasmus+. In 2030, there will be a European Capital of Culture on the territory of the Greek part of the island; Larnaka and Limassol are still in contention; the jury’s decision will be announced in December (see EUROPE 13736/32). For reasons that we will go into later on, my money would be the more northerly of the two cities.
The darkest aspect remains the division of the island for more than 50 years. Following independence, which was granted in 1960, tensions mounted between the majority Greek citizens and the Turkish minority. In 1974, the Regime of the Colonels attempted to pull off a coup d’etat aiming to make Cyprus Greek, which had the effect of swift and decisive military intervention by Turkey, which occupied the north of the island. This move would lead to population shifts and much bloodshed. A demarcation line between the two parts of the island became established, cutting through the capital, Nicosia. This ‘green line’ is demilitarised, but is controlled by a United Nations force.
With the support of Turkey, the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus was proclaimed in 1983, but this has never been recognised internationally (other than by Ankara). This situation has become entrenched over the years. The EU has not stinted in its efforts to bring the feuding family members together around a table. A plan promoted by Secretary General Kofi Annan was agreed by both sides, but then rejected by referendum in 2004.
That same year, further to an accession application made in 1990 and the agreement of the Council of the EU in 1995, Cyprus became a member of the European Union. The entire island was deemed a member on the strength of that, but Community law did not apply to the northern republic. Currently, Turkish Cypriots with EU travel documents or who meet the conditions to obtain them have EU citizen status.
In 2008, the United Nations took up the cudgels once more. Switzerland was the venue for the negotiators. The years went by. Ankara’s refusal to withdraw its troops blocked the whole lot every time. Another issue was the possibility for persons displaced in 1974 to return to their home villages. In 2020, the election of a nationalist President in the North, Ersin Tatar, who, like Ankara, supports a solution based on two independent States, put everything on ice.
In the meanwhile, the European Union has repeatedly expressed its ‘grave concerns’ at the illegal borehole drilling by Turkey in the territorial waters. But it has also won hearts and minds in both parts of the island.
A European regulation which entered into force in 2004 promoted trade and crossings over the ‘green line’. Counts were taken. After 20 years, crossings in both directions stood at 64 million, or an annual average of 3.2. However, in the year 2024 alone, the number was in excess of 7 million. This must be seen as a reflection of the populations coming together. Furthermore, instead of snubbing the northern part of Cyprus, the Commission decided in 2006 to provide it with its own economic support instrument, which would include the possibility for Turkish Cypriots students to study abroad under the Erasmus scheme. These funds totalled nearly 40 million euros for 2024 alone (see EUROPE 13671/12). Yet this policy has its limits: it has not prevented incidents between the two communities. Recently, five Greek Cypriot citizens visiting their ancestral property in the North were arrested and taken into custody. The affair prompted the European Parliament to vote through a resolution last month (see EUROPE 13707/9).
On 20 March 2025, following an informal meeting in Geneva, President Christodoulides declared, on the day before the European Council, that the two sides had given their consent for the United Nations to appoint a special envoy tasked with organising the resumption of negotiations (see EUROPE 13604/10). Ms Maria Angela Holguin Cuéllar was chosen. Subsequently, the European Commission appointed former European Commissioner Johannes Hahn the EU’s special envoy for Cyprus (see EUROPE 13640/24).
It is, however, on the Turkish side that the decisive event has just taken place. In the presidential elections of 19 October, the incumbent, Ersin Tatar, was denied a second term in office. He was roundly defeated by the opposition candidate, Tufan Erhürman, who won nearly 60% of the vote. This was a severe blow to the nationalist movement and President Erdoğan.
The new President, was born in Nicosia in 1970, studied at the University of Ankara, where he earned his PhD in law. He worked as a lecturer at several universities. As leader of the Turkish Republican Party, he was elected and then re-elected to Parliament in the North. His presidential election campaign was waged in favour of the reunification of the island. Optimism is in the air on both sides of the ‘green line’.
In his interview with Euronews, President Christodoulides reiterated this optimism and said that he was prepared to negotiate with the winner immediately. The model retained may be a bizonal and bi-community federal State. Obviously, it will mean that Turkey will have to begin a progressive withdrawal of its troops. This is why Tufan Erhürman lost no time in stating that he would work ‘in close cooperation with Turkey’, which will likely be expecting some form of compensation. In the meantime, it certainly appears that President Erdoğan increasingly aspires to play a key role, predominantly in the Middle East and in the Caucasus.
The pieces in this new chess game may therefore start to take their places. It would be politically helpful for the Cypriot Presidency of the Council of the EU to be able to chalk up to its credit a success it would hardly have dreamed of, with the reunification of the island, allowing it to speak on behalf of the Turkish Cypriots as well, in Brussels and Strasbourg.
While the leaders of the European Union, having been powerless to stop the massacres, were not the architects of the Middle Eastern peace plan, it would be disheartening if they fail to seize the opportunity to bring lasting peace to the whole of the Cypriot population and offer them new and exciting prospects. It would be not only a diplomatic success, but also a major signal to the Mediterranean countries, particularly those which are candidates for accession.
Then, we can finally talk about greatness.
Renaud Denuit