At a European summit on Thursday 17 October, the heads of state or government of the countries of the European Union will reiterate their “unwavering” support for Ukraine in all areas, particularly political, military and financial.
At this last formal meeting of the European Council, the outgoing President, Charles Michel, has invited the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, to present to the EU27 his “plan for victory” for Ukraine against Russian military aggression.
On the military front, the EU27 will invite the EU Council to rapidly finalise work on the assistance measures of the ‘European Peace Facility’ and on the extension of the mandate of the ‘EU Military Assistance Mission in support of Ukraine’ (EUMAM) (see EUROPE 13503/7), according to draft European Council conclusions dated Tuesday 15 October. They will call for a strengthening and acceleration of EU military support, in particular air defence systems, ammunition and missiles.
In addition, the European Council will welcome the EU Council’s agreement on providing Ukraine with new macrofinancial assistance of up to €35 billion in 2025 (see EUROPE 13500/27), as the European contribution to the G7 countries’ decision to provide bilateral loans to Kyiv. These loans will be pledged against future profits generated by the Bank of Russia’s assets immobilised in the EU, mainly in Belgium.
According to several diplomatic sources, it is unlikely that Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán will lift his country’s opposition on Thursday to the proposal to increase the duration of sanctions targeting the Bank of Russia’s assets from six to 36 months. Hungary wants to wait for the outcome of the American elections before making a decision. Increasing the duration of sanctions is a condition imposed by the United States on its participation in bilateral loans from G7 countries. Such participation would mean that the amount of macro-financial aid from the EU could be reduced.
This is why the Member States are hoping that the United States will grant Ukraine a bilateral loan. They also spoke of the importance for the G7 of the West presenting a united front against Russia. The draft conclusions of the European Council. stress that the EU “will aim at ensuring fair sharing and solidarity between G7 partners as well as with those Member States that are particularly exposed to financial and legal risks”. They add that Russian assets will remain immobilised until Russia ceases hostilities and pays reparations for the damage caused.
Within the Commission, however, there is talk of discussions on other options to circumvent a possible Hungarian veto. One of them would be to grant specific bilateral guarantees to the G7 countries.
With winter approaching and “over half of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure destroyed”, we should step up our efforts as a matter of urgency, says Mr Michel in his invitation letter to EU leaders.
Finally, the question of a new package of sanctions against Russia could be raised. Some countries, such as the Netherlands, believe that the ‘ghost fleet’ of ships still exporting Russian hydrocarbons should be tackled.
See the European Council’s draft conclusions dated 15 October: https://aeur.eu/f/dwo (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)