While European leaders have had relatively few discussions on migration in recent months, due to the agreements reached on the ‘Pact on Migration and Asylum’, the subject will make its political comeback on Thursday 17 October in Brussels.
This time, heads of state and government will focus on tightening up the return policy and on possible new arrangements for returning people who have been refused asylum in the EU to third countries, where they would await repatriation to their country of origin or another third country.
Following the discussions in 2023 on the possibility of using the European budget to finance physical infrastructure at the external borders to prevent migrant arrivals, since the beginning of the year a majority of Member States have been looking at ways of outsourcing asylum procedures or at “return centres” in third countries to prevent such arrivals.
These so-called ‘return hubs’ were explicitly proposed last May by 15 Member States (see EUROPE 13411/3), and, on Tuesday, the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, reconfirmed her willingness to examine their feasibility (see EUROPE 13504/15).
But as yet there are no proposals on the table and no clear definition of these future ‘hubs’ (the Italo-Albanian model is completely different, as it involves the processing of asylum applications in Albania under Italian law). There is a growing consensus on the need to tighten return legislation and facilitate expulsions.
In particular, the discussion has evolved in recent weeks under the impetus of Germany and France, which are “more keen to see strong action in the name of the European Union”, confirms a European source. Germany was rocked by a terrorist attack perpetrated in late August by a Syrian national in an irregular situation, and France has a new interior minister who is taking a harder line than his predecessors.
According to one European source, media attention in the Member States is currently focused mainly on illegal immigration, and a response is needed.
On average, only 20% of decisions to return third-country nationals are enforced, so if “we don’t focus on the 20%, the risk increases that people will try to come to Europe. The only way to change the logic is to improve returns”, the source adds.
This source believes that firm action by the EU on this issue will subsequently make it easier to come up with ideas on legal migration, particularly for work purposes.
Uncertainty on European Council conclusions. But this new convergence of opinions does not mean that the EU27 are in agreement on everything, and on the eve of the European Council, it was not certain that the discussion would result in conclusions.
Spain, for example, has already expressed its refusal to work on these “return centres”. Poland, which has just announced its intention to partially suspend the right to asylum in order to deal with the thousands of migrants being sent to Poland by Belarus and Russia (see EUROPE 13503/19), opposes any conclusions this Thursday.
Indeed, at this stage, Warsaw is calling for a strategic discussion on the weaknesses of the EU’s return and asylum policies, before drafting conclusions in December.
In the meantime, Warsaw believes that the shortcomings will have been clearly identified. The Polish government, which currently fears the possible arrival of 20,000 people via the border with Belarus, also wants to discuss possible new amendments to European asylum legislation with its partners between now and December.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who has repeatedly expressed his rejection of the ‘Pact’, will use the summit to explain his plans and make his partners understand that using migration as a “weapon” is not just a “threat to Poland, but to the whole EU”, said another source.
Other countries, however, would like to see more concrete language on migration on Thursday, without actually making it a priority.
For them, the most important thing will be to have “a good and frank discussion”, enabling the concept of “return hubs” to be clarified. There are many questions, particularly concerning the third countries likely to be candidates for these centres. A previous idea of ‘disembarkation platforms’ put forward by the Commission in 2018 was rejected by the North African countries.
“What will happen to those people sent back to third countries who are unable to return to another country? What status will these people have?”, asks another source.
Other Member States believe that priority should also be given to rejected asylum seekers with criminal records who pose a real risk to the security of the EU.
Certain Member States that already have return centres in third countries where rejected migrants are detained and subject to European legislation are expected to be invited to talk about their experience. Germany is relying on cooperation with Qatar to send people back to Afghanistan.
Another possible bone of contention between the EU27 could be the Pact on Migration and Asylum. Some Member States, such as Spain, France and Germany, want to speed up its implementation, scheduled for 2026, but are referring to different tools, ranging from the solidarity mechanism in the case of Spain to screening procedures in the case of France.
In this discussion, European leaders will have to preserve the overall balance of the ‘Pact’ and its 10 directives and regulations.
At this stage, the draft conclusions being envisaged on 15 October remained fairly general. The European Council is therefore expected to call for determined action at all levels to facilitate, increase and speed up returns from the European Union, using all relevant EU instruments, including diplomacy, development, trade and visas, and to invite the Commission “to propose a new legislative proposal, as a matter of urgency”. It is also expected to reiterate its determination to combat the use of migrants for political ends and call for new ways to prevent and counter irregular migration, in accordance with international law.
Syria. Some countries may also express their desire to send Syrian refugees back to their country of origin (see EUROPE 13413/36). The situation in Lebanon will be discussed and could have an impact on the migration issue. The issue of resuming diplomatic contacts with Syria, which in turn hosts many Lebanese refugees fleeing the conflict with Israel, may also be raised.
However, according to a senior European official, discussion is still at an early stage and Europeans will not review their position on Syria on Thursday.
Informal breakfast. Migration will also be the subject of a breakfast meeting convened by the leaders of Italy, the Netherlands and Denmark. At the time of going to press, around a dozen participants were expected, but no details of the participating countries were available.
Link to the most recent draft conclusions: https://aeur.eu/f/dwo