On Tuesday 15 October, nine other Member States - Cyprus, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, Latvia, the Netherlands, Slovakia, Slovenia and Spain - presented their multiannual fiscal plans, which generally cover four years, from 2025 to 2028. The Italian plan will cover five years.
Cyprus. The Cypriot authorities are forecasting sustained growth throughout the period, at 3% of national GDP. They point to a growth in net budget expenditure according to the following trajectory: 5.9% in 2025, 5.0% in 2026, 4.5% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028.
Combined with growth, this trajectory should enable Cyprus to maintain a comfortable budget surplus of 2.7% of GDP in 2025, 2.6% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027 and 2028. Public debt is also expected to significantly reduce, from 64.1% to 47.4% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
Spain. In Spain, growth in net budget expenditure is expected to observe the following trajectory: 3.7% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, 3.2% in 2027 and 3.0% in 2028.
Combined with strong growth in national GDP, this trajectory should make it possible to gradually reduce the public deficit to 2.5% of GDP in 2025, 2.1% in 2026, 1.8% in 2027 and 1.6% in 2028. Spain’s public debt is expected to continue to fall sharply, from 101.4% to 96.6% between 2025 and 2028.
Ireland. In Ireland, the government is forecasting the following trajectory for net budget expenditure growth: 3.0% in 2025, 6.6% in 2026, and 5.0% in 2027 and 2028.
Combined with annual GDP growth in excess of 3.5% over the whole period, this spending trajectory should make it possible to maintain a budget surplus of 1.7% of GDP in 2025, 1.4% in 2026, 1.1% in 2027, and 1.6% in 2028. Ireland’s already low public debt is expected to fall from 37.9% of GDP in 2025 to 34.0% in 2028.
Ireland’s multiannual fiscal plan provides data up to the end of the decade.
Italy. The Italian authorities are forecasting moderate growth in net budget expenditure according to the following trajectory: 1.3% in 2025, 1.6% in 2026, 1.9% in 2027, 1.7% in 2028 and 1.5% in 2029.
Combined with moderate growth over the period, Italy’s deficit should gradually decline to 3.3% of GDP in 2025, 2.8% in 2026, 2.6% in 2027, 2.3% in 2028 and 1.8% in 2029. Public debt is expected to stabilise at 137.8% of Italy’s GDP in 2026 and begin to fall to 134.9% in 2029.
Like seven other EU countries, Italy is subject to an excessive deficit procedure (see EUROPE 13462/1).
Latvia. According to the Latvian authorities, national GDP growth will exceed 2.2% over the period 2025-2028. The following trajectory for net budgetary expenditure is put forward: 5.9% in 2025, 3.6% in 2026, 3.4% in 2027 and 3.3% in 2028.
This trajectory should make it possible to gradually reduce the public deficit to 2.99% of GDP in 2025, 2.75% of GDP in 2026, 2.53% of GDP in 2027 and 2.23% of GDP in 2028. The country’s low level of public debt is expected to rise slightly over the period, from 46.8% to 48.9% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
Luxembourg. In Luxembourg, growth in net budget expenditure is expected to observe the following trajectory: 5.8% in 2025, 4.7% in 2026, 3.8% in 2027, 5.4% in 2028 and 4.7% in 2029.
Combined with sustained growth (between 2 and 3% of GDP over the period), this trajectory should make it possible to keep public deficit at a low level of 0.6% of GDP in 2025, 0.5% of GDP in 2026, 0.3% of GDP in 2027 and 0.4% of GDP in 2028. Luxembourg’s very low level of public debt is expected to fall slightly, from 27.5% to 26.0% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
The Netherlands. The Dutch authorities are forecasting growth in net budget expenditure according to the following trajectory: 6.8% in 2025, 3.5% in 2026, 2.1% in 2027 and 4.3% in 2028.
Combined with national GDP growth of close to 1.5% over the period, this trajectory should keep public deficit below 2.5% of GDP over the period, except in 2026, when it would reach 3.4% of GDP. The country’s low level of public debt is expected to increase from 46.7% to 51.1% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
Slovakia. The Slovak authorities have opted for the following trajectory for net budget expenditure growth: 3.8% in 2025, 0.9% in 2026, 1.6% in 2027 and 1.5% in 2028.
This trajectory should make it possible to significantly reduce the public deficit to 4.7% of GDP in 2025, 3.7% in 2026, 3.0% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2028. Public debt is expected to remain stable at around 60% of GDP over the period.
Like seven other EU countries, Slovakia is subject to an excessive deficit procedure.
Slovenia. Growth in net budget expenditure is expected to observe the following trajectory: 5.6% in 2025, 4.4% in 2026, 4.1% in 2027 and 4.0% in 2028.
Combined with national GDP growth in excess of 2% over the period as a whole, this trajectory should make it possible to reduce the public deficit to 2.6% of GDP in 2025, 1.9% in 2026, 1.6% in 2027 and 1.2% in 2028. Slovenia’s public debt is also expected to fall, from 65.4% to 61.2% of GDP between 2025 and 2028.
See the macro-fiscal plans submitted by the Member States so far: https://aeur.eu/f/djs (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)