Between the European elections taking place from 6 to 9 June and the constituent session of the European Parliament to be held from 16 to 19 July in Strasbourg, 6 weeks will pass during which the European Parliament’s political groups will re-form, new groupings could emerge and a political majority could take shape leading to the election of the person who will be responsible for presiding over the European Commission.
Over this period, no fewer than six meetings (11, 20 and 26 June and 2, 11 and 18 July) of the Conference of Presidents of the Political Groups (CoP) for the 2019-2024 legislature could be convened.
This will be an opportunity for participants to draw lessons from the European elections and to consider a possible political majority capable of supporting a leading candidate (‘Spitzenkandidat’) from a European political party with a view to putting pressure on the heads of state or government. They will meet on 17 and 27-28 June in Brussels to discuss and decide on the distribution of the top European posts: Presidency of the European Commission, Presidency of the European Council and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs. Other extraordinary summits cannot be ruled out if they fail to reach agreement on the Commission Presidency.
At the same time, the existing political groups will be gathering their troops to reconfirm the elected members of the national parties who are members, or even to welcome new ones. Those that are formed or created (minimum 23 members from at least 7 Member States) before the constituent session will be eligible to compete for positions of responsibility within the European Parliament’s organisational chart. It should also be noted that a political group can be formed at any time during a legislature.
In chronological order, the Christian Democrat (EPP) group will approve the admission of new members on Tuesday 18 June. The next day, in the morning, it will elect its President and Vice-Presidents, with the current President, Germany’s Manfred Weber, standing for re-election (see EUROPE 13422/9). In the afternoon, it will elect its candidate for the Presidency of the Parliament - Malta’s Roberta Metsola is standing for her own succession for 2.5 years - and it will hold an exchange of views with the European People’s Party candidate, Ursula von der Leyen, for the Presidency of the Commission.
After drawing the first lessons from the European elections and beginning to reflect on their political priorities on Wednesday 12 June, the European ecologists will elect their co-presidents, vice-presidents and treasurer on Wednesday 19 June. An official meeting will be held on 26 June with members of the ‘European Free Alliance’ party with the aim of reconstituting the Greens/EFA Group (see EUROPE 13426/3). At the beginning of July, members of this Group will debate their participation in parliamentary committees and national delegations, and will vote on this issue on Tuesday 9 July.
The Socialist and Social Democrat (S&D) Group will elect its president on Tuesday 25 June, as well as its vice-presidents and the members of its Bureau the following day (see EUROPE 13426/1). The election date for the presidency of The Left group is also set for 25 June.
The centre-right and liberal Renew Europe group will officially reconstitute itself on 26 June, when it will elect its president. France’s Valérie Hayer could claim her own succession, if the French Renaissance delegation remains the strongest national delegation in the group (see EUROPE 13426/2).
The sovereignist ECR group will meet every Wednesday after the European elections and will also officially constitute on 26 June, when it will elect its chairman. Finally, the nationalist group ‘Identity and Democracy’ has announced that it will officially reconstitute on Wednesday 3 July, when its leaders will be elected (see EUROPE 13426/4).
Commission Presidency. The MEPs have not yet set a date for the election by absolute majority (361 MEPs in 2024) of the person that the European Council will propose to them to preside over the Commission, taking into account the results of the European elections.
The September plenary session had initially been brought up. However, there is strong political pressure to bring the deadline forward. According to our information, the EPP, S&D and Renew Europe groups have reached an informal agreement setting the date for this election for Thursday 18 July, during the European Parliaments constituent plenary session, on condition that the European Council agrees on the distribution of Europe’s ‘top jobs’ on 27 and 28 June.
However, no decision has been formally taken and will not be taken - at the earliest - before the CoP meeting on Thursday 11 July, which will be called upon to set the agenda for the following week’s plenary session. However, the agenda for the plenary session may be finalised by Monday 15 July, and it cannot be ruled out that an extraordinary plenary session may be called between mid-July and the September plenary session.
During the 2019-2024 parliamentary legislature, a reform of the internal workings of Parliament introduced new provisions that could have an impact on the timetable. The President-designate of the Commission will have to present the structure of the future College of Commissioners to MEPs before the election. Will there be enough time between the appointment by the European Council and the constituent plenary session in July, especially if the outgoing President and EPP ‘Spitzenkandidat’, Ursula von der Leyen, is not appointed? The latter is said to want to maintain the current structure (executive vice-presidents, vice-presidents and European Commissioners).
In mid-July, at the European Parliament’s constituent plenary session, MEPs will begin by electing their President, Vice-Presidents and Quaestors, who will make up the twenty members of the Parliament’s Bureau. And it is not impossible that the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, as leader of the country taking over the Presidency of the Council of the EU in the second half of 2024, will come to Strasbourg to present his country’s priorities.
Between Monday 22 and Thursday 25 July in Brussels, the existing parliamentary committees will be reconstituted, with the election of their chairs and vice-chairs. The question of deploying a ‘cordon sanitaire’ preventing nationalists from gaining access to positions of responsibility could arise depending on the size of the far right within the hemicycle. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)