As in 2014 and 2019, the Christian Democrat political family is hoping to emerge victorious from the European elections, which take place from 6 to 9 June. If the results confirm the pre-election polls, the European People’s Party (EPP) will confirm its position as the largest political group in the European Parliament for the 2024-2029 legislature.
The chairman of the EPP party, Germany’s Manfred Weber, is convinced that the Christian Democrats would then be in the best position to initiate negotiations with the other political groupings with a view to forming a pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of Law majority in the Parliament that is sufficiently stable to support the leading candidate (‘Spitzenkandidat’), his compatriot Ursula von der Leyen, who is seeking a second term as President of the European Commission.
In the event of an EPP victory in the European elections, the Bavarian MEP expects the Party of European Socialists (PES), as well as the centre-right and liberals united in the Renew Europe platform - two competing political families, but traditional participants in centrist pro-European coalitions - to respect the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ process by supporting Ms von der Leyen’s bid, as was the case in 2014, when the German Social Democrat Martin Schulz supported the nomination of the Luxembourg Christian Democrat Jean-Claude Juncker to head the Commission (see EUROPE 11103/16).
EPP leaders believe that support for Ms von der Leyen from pro-European political groupings could come as early as the meeting of the Conference of Presidents (CoP) of the European Parliament’s political groups on Tuesday 11 June in Brussels.
If the Christian Democrats’ plan is to go smoothly, it will be up to the 27 EU leaders, who will have an informal dinner in Brussels on Monday 17 June to draw some initial conclusions from the European elections, to agree on the following distribution of the top European posts to be filled for the next legislative cycle: the EPP would get the Presidency of the European Commission, the PES the Presidency of the European Council and the Liberals the post of EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs.
The EPP is also seeking a second term at the head of the European Parliament for Roberta Metsola from Malta, who has no rivals within her political family.
Between now and the European summit on 27 and 28 June, which could prove decisive, Ms von der Leyen will be responsible for negotiating a programme for the next 5 years. She would first enter into discussions at the centre of the political spectrum with the Social Democrats and Liberals. If the results of the European elections show that this EPP-PES-Renew Europe tripartite majority is not sufficient to allow her election without any unpleasant surprises (an absolute majority of 361 MEPs will be required), the EPP’s head of list candidate will have to broaden the coalition by negotiating, on the left, with the European environmentalists and even the radical left and, on the right, with certain conservative national parties such as Fratelli d’Italia, led by the President of the Italian Council, Giorgia Meloni, and the Civic Democratic Party of the Czech Prime Minister, Petr Fiala.
In the minds of Christian Democrat leaders, Ms Meloni’s action at the head of a government that includes the extreme right-wing Lega and the Christian Democrats of Forza Italia demonstrates that the Italian leader fulfils the three aforementioned criteria. But there is no question of Giorgia Meloni’s party being absorbed into the EPP. On the other hand, other national conservative parties, such as the Polish Law and Justice party and the Fidesz party of Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, and a fortiori nationalist parties such as the Rassemblement National in France, promote toxic ideas that prohibit any cooperation, according to the EPP.
However, the path mapped out by the Christian Democrat family for Ms von der Leyen’s reappointment remains strewn with pitfalls that could ultimately derail compliance with the ‘Spitzenkandidaten’ principle. There is no evidence that the EU27, while taking account of the results of the European elections as required by the European treaties, will propose to Parliament that Ms von der Leyen be reappointed as head of the Commission, as was the case in 2019 with the dismissal, decreed by the French President, Emmanuel Macron, of Mr Weber, the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ of the European party which had nevertheless won the elections.
The Social Democrats and Liberals have also warned that they will not enter into any coalition that includes conservatives and/or nationalists, a principled stance that will be difficult to renege on at a time when the Renew Europe group in Parliament could exclude representatives of Mr Rutte’s VVD party, which has agreed to govern the Netherlands with the far right. The environmentalists, whose relative weight could diminish in the next Parliament, could, in exchange for their support, make demands such that the Christian Democrats, ready to turn a blind eye if the European Green Deal goes off course, would refuse to compromise. The same applies to the radical left, which could raise the stakes on social action at European level in exchange for a few votes.
One thing seems certain within the EPP. The outgoing Chairman of the EPP Group in the European Parliament, Mr Weber, is expected to be reappointed at the meeting to reconstitute the Christian Democrat Group on Tuesday 18 June. In the run-up to Parliament’s constituent session from 16 to 19 July, the EPP group will meet again to introduce its new members. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)