With the latest projections giving them a gain of 138 seats on the evening of Sunday 9 June, the European Socialists entered the final stretch of the European election campaign on Friday 7 June with relative confidence that they would secure their place as the second largest European political family, after the European People's Party (EPP).
Although, according to the polls, they will lose a few seats compared to the current composition of the European Parliament (139 out of 705 members), the European Socialists could potentially see the French delegation once again become one of the largest in the S&D group, this time capable of influencing decisions.
The southern EU countries in general, including Italy with the Democratic Party which could claim 17 seats, are in good shape and would compensate for possible losses in other Member States such as Germany, where the SPD is expected to lose two seats (from 16 to 14), according to the latest polls.
In Spain, despite some losses, the Socialists should still be able to send a very large contingent to the European Parliament (between 17 and 19 seats).
For a number of observers, however, the highlight of this campaign remains the potential return of a strong French delegation to the group, which could obtain 12 to 14 seats, compared to the five it has now.
However, this could create friction, as members of the French S&D delegation have recently clashed with their Spanish and Italian colleagues on a range of issues, starting with the ‘Pact on Migration and Asylum’, which the French S&D did not support. In any case, this French ‘comeback’ is largely attributed to the dynamism of Raphaël Glucksmann’s campaign (Place Publique).
In the meantime, the team led by Nicolas Schmit, the PES ‘Spitzenkandidat’ nominated on 2 March in Rome, was determined to stay busy on the ground right up until the last minute.
After Spain on Wednesday, the PES candidate was in Slovenia and Croatia on Thursday; on Friday 7, the Luxembourger took part in an SPD meeting in Germany with the head of the list, Katarina Barley.
Although the ‘Spitzenkandidat’ was initially criticised for his performance in the first debates with the other European heads of list, and sometimes found it difficult to distinguish himself from Commission President Ursula von der Leyen (EPP), whose record he shares to a large extent, the current Commissioner for Jobs and Social Rights “ran a good campaign and put a lot of effort into it, even travelling to small towns”, commented a source in the group.
And this in a context where voters are sometimes unfamiliar with the workings and precise role of the various European institutions. So the fact that the Luxembourger is not necessarily known outside the European ‘bubble’ was not seen as a handicap within the socialist family.
After 9 June, there will in any case be a period of observation for the Socialists, who have constantly warned the EPP against the temptation to work with the ECR group and in particular Giorgia Meloni’s group.
This clear line has been repeated throughout the campaign, with the Socialists in particular claiming that Ms von der Leyen will not have the necessary votes to be re-elected, potentially as early as mid-July, if she reaches out to the ECR, which is also being courted by the Hungarian leader, Viktor Orbán, or the French Rassemblement National.
The first estimates in the Netherlands, which on Thursday evening 6 put the PvdA-Groenlinks list of Frans Timmermans and Bas Eickhout in first place ahead of the far-right of Geert Wilders, have also strengthened certain Socialist list leaders such as Raphaël Glucksmann.
“The marriage of social democracy and political ecology, on a clearly pro-European line, is the future! Now that’s resistance to the far right!”, he commented on X.
In the European Council, the Socialists are not in a position of strength, but their status as the second largest political group in the European Parliament could help them obtain the position they have aspired to from the outset, namely the post of President of the European Council for Portugal’s Antonio Costa.
Spanish Minister Teresa Ribera is also being considered for an important portfolio within the Commission, namely that of the ‘European Green Deal’.
According to Politico, the Socialist family will also logically ask for the second part of the European Parliament presidency, in this case for the Spaniard Iratxe García or Katarina Barley.
With just two days to go before the polls, however, some people wanted to keep a cool head and not build up too many scenarios. Only the final results of the elections will make “things a little less unclear for the future”, adds our source.
One thing is certain, however: the group will be holding its inaugural meeting on 25 and 26 June, at which time the group chair and executive will be appointed. (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)