Despite their optimism throughout the election campaign, the candidates in the centrist-liberal Renew Europe group in the European Parliament are well aware not only of the polls, which have been predicting them losing seats for months, but also of the internal tensions rekindled by the expulsion threat facing the Dutch VVD party following its alliance with the far-right PVV party in the Netherlands.
The day after the European elections, on 10 June, the Renew Europe group is due to vote on the fate of the Dutch VVD party of outgoing Prime Minister Mark Rutte (see EUROPE 13414/18).
That is at any rate what the group’s chairwoman, French MEP Valérie Hayer, announced on 16 May, following the coalition announcement in the Netherlands (see EUROPE 13411/15). “A red line has been crossed”, she declared.
Several heads of delegation reacted to the announcement, including Morten Løkkegaard of Denmark’s Venstre party, who openly criticised the decision, which he likened to a takeover of the Renew Europe group’s internal policy by Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party.
Speaking to Agence Europe, the head of delegation for the Belgian Open VLD party, Hilde Vaultmans, acknowledged that “the political views of the PVV and Geert Wilders are in contradiction with our liberal values with regard to the rule of law, the economy, the climate and, certainly, Europe”, but added that the issue would indeed be discussed on 10 June, taking into account internal procedures concerning party positions.
An effective ousting of the Dutch VVD party is undoubtedly ill-advised, against a backdrop of unfavourable polls for the Renew Europe group in relation to the 2019 ballot, raising fears of the loss of its third place in the European Parliament.
The VVD party currently has 5 outgoing MEPs, but is set to lose one seat, according to the first provisional results of the poll in the Netherlands, the first country to open its polling stations on 6 June.
More generally, according to the latest estimates from Europe Elects, the Renew Europe group, as it stands, could retain its third position in the European Parliament, with 86 seats, up from 108 in 2019, remaining well ahead of the progressive centre-left Socialists and Democrats (S&D) alliance, with 138 seats, and the European People’s Party (EPP), which would obtain 180 seats.
However, on the right of the political spectrum, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) and Identity and Democracy (ID) groups have been closing in on third place for months. The latest estimates give the ECR 75 seats and ID 68.
According to current projections, the French delegation will remain the most heavily represented within the Renew Europe group, but will drop from 23 seats at present to 15, notably to the benefit of the Rassemblement National within the ID group, which currently has 18 seats and which could rise to 30 at the end of the ballot.
Renew Europe’s inaugural meeting, at which the chair and officers will be appointed, is scheduled for 26 June. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)