While a green wave swept the European Union in 2019, this momentum seems to have faded, with polls showing a significant drop in support for the ‘European Green Party’ over the past few months.
As a result, the environmentalists could see their representation fall sharply after the next European elections. Whereas they had 74 MEPs in the European Parliament after the 2019 elections, Europe Elect’s projections on 31 May suggest that they could win just 55-56 seats out of 720 after the elections on 9 June.
Despite this overall decline, estimates for the Greens/European Free Alliance (EFA) group see an increase of eight seats compared to the figures published in April.
In addition, Green candidates could be elected for the first time in 10 years in Central and Eastern Europe, a sign of the group’s diversification, according to an internal party source.
In Germany, Die Grünen is credited with 14-15% of voting intentions, down on previous elections, and the German Greens could lose around 10 seats.
In Luxembourg, where the Greens are credited with 15% of voting intentions, Tilly Metz believes she has a 70% chance of being re-elected, according to the same source. In Spain, where a contingent was somewhat expected, the outlook is less favourable.
In the Netherlands, the combined Green and Social Democrat list, GroenLinks-PvdA, won eight European seats on Thursday 6 June, overtaking Geert Wilders’ far-right PVV party. Dutchman Bas Eickhout, head of the European Greens list, interpreted the victory as a signal for the whole of Europe, stating in a press release that a progressive policy can halt the rise of the far right.
And with good reason: the Greens had focused their campaign on the fight against the far right, as Sybren Kooistra, the Greens’ campaign director, explained to Euractiv. On 8 May, the Greens, together with the S&D, Renew Europe and The Left groups, signed a declaration urging the rejection of any cooperation with far-right parties (see EUROPE 13422/9).
A setback would threaten European climate policy and its roadmap, the ‘Green Deal’. The party’s loss of influence is worrying its members, despite their efforts to remain optimistic and ignore the polls, which have been thwarted in the past.
But the current economic and political context is very different from that of 2019 and 2014. Climate demonstrations have been overshadowed by farmer protests, leading to a relaxation of environmental regulations. Public support for environmental measures is declining.
And while, according to recent Eurobarometer data, 84% consider EU environmental legislation to be essential for protecting the environment in their country, recent crises such as Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine have diluted environmental concerns. Rising energy prices are making Europeans less willing to bear the costs of the green transition.
In addition, the outcome of the vote could influence the loss of the chairmanships of several committees within the European Parliament, which will be constituted in September. The election of the group’s bureau will take place on 19 June, and the official inaugural meeting with the EFA is scheduled for 26 June. (Original version in French by Nithya Paquiry)