The ensuing winter will not be like last year’s. This year, we will not have to cope with exorbitant energy prices, forcing us to turn down the thermostats in our homes and offices, or the uncertainty over power supply, even though we still have to keep an eye on that. On 28 November, the European Commission proposed to extend for one year the emergency measures decided upon (see EUROPE 13302/9) and this very Tuesday, the Council of the EU is to take position on the subject (see EUROPE 13315/9).
Still on the subject of energy and the climate, the results of COP28 are encouraging, their lack of precision notwithstanding: special fund for the developing countries, transition to the end of fossil fuels, a threefold increase in the use of renewables. In these negotiations, in which it stood together, the European Union played an important part, to the great satisfaction of the European Parliament (see EUROPE 13314/18).
The Spanish Presidency of the Council of the EU will end with a remarkable list of achievements, which we can measure, amongst other things, against the yardstick of the trilogue agreements on pieces of legislation that are important for our everyday lives and our future. Allow me to list the most recent of these, in many cases obtained after lengthy discussions between the delegations of the Parliament and Council: the targeting and transparency of political advertising (see EUROPE 13287/1), restoring nature (see EUROPE 13290/1), critical raw materials (see EUROPE 13292/6), interoperable Europe (see EUROPE 13292/7), European disability card (see EUROPE 13301/2), renewable and low-carbon gas and hydrogen (see EUROPE 13302/7 and EUROPE 13310/5), the protection of consumers from unfair practices and for better information (see EUROPE 13302/31), industrial emissions (see EUROPE 13303/1), the protection of journalists from ‘strategic lawsuits against public participation’ (see EUROPE 13304/5), cyber-resilience (see EUROPE 13305/1), artificial intelligence (see EUROPE 13311/17), digital platform workers (see EUROPE 13313/11), European authority for countering money-laundering and terrorist financing (see EUROPE 13313/12), harmonisation of construction products (see EUROPE 13313/17), quality and safety standards of substances of human origin (blood donations, etc.) (see EUROPE 13314/3), reform of the electricity market (see EUROPE 13314/4), responsibility for faulty products (see EUROPE 13314/5), companies’ duty of diligence (see EUROPE 13314/12), rules for the insurance sector (see EUROPE 13314/14) and the freedom of the media (see EUROPE 13315/6).
There are, however, shades of grey in this impressive list, which must be communicated to the citizens with only a few months to go until the European elections. Spain made a point of breathing new life into the plans to coordinate social security regimes, an extremely tricky dossier: will it succeed in pushing it through in the next few days, as it still hopes to (see EUROPE 13314/16)? The proposed directive aiming to tackle violence against women has made little headway in trilogue sessions, as certain states remain staunchly opposed to the inclusion of rape in the text (see EUROPE 13313/14). The agreement on remote working and the right to disconnect, which was negotiated between the social partners, crashed and burned; the Commission may attempt to replace it with legislation (see EUROPE 13301/6 and EUROPE 13314/15). As for the European pact on migration, which comprises several legislative acts, it cannot now be concluded, if at all, before the forthcoming Belgian Presidency of the Council, starting on 1 January. Belgium will have a marathon to run if it is to tie up all loose ends before the spring, as all attention will then be on the European election campaigns.
But the winter is likely to be bleak not just for this reason. Every day, disturbing images are beamed in from Gaza. Europeans are involved in the humanitarian aid efforts, but they would like to play a political role to help bring peace to the region – which is presumptuous of them. At the UN General Assembly on 12 December, a vote was held in favour of an immediate ceasefire and the unconditional liberation of all hostages held; it won by an overwhelming majority, but of the EU countries, 17 voted in favour, two against and eight abstained (see EUROPE 13313/4). The European Union – a badly named institution in this case – displayed its divisions for all the world to see – an immense mistake. Three days later, the Conclusions of the European Council simply mentioned that a debate on the subject had been held. In the meantime, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, which cannot currently be resolved, is polarising public opinion and increasing the risk of terrorist attacks.
As for Ukraine, 26 member states agreed to the launch of accession negotiations, as well as with Moldova, and to continue military, humanitarian and financial assistance. However, Hungary vetoed the revision of the multi-annual financial framework and therefore the 50 billion euros earmarked for Ukraine over the period 2024-2027 (see EUROPE 13315A1). An extraordinary European Council is to be held in late January: whether Hungary will maintain its veto or it will be possible to get round it with a ‘non-EU’ format, the crisis will be undeniable and the EU will publicly lose credibility, as has been the case with the Middle East.
But Ukraine is going through a particularly tough period. The military counter-offences has failed to supply the anticipated results, winter is upon us, the front-line soldiers are exhausted and their families are demonstrating in the streets for them to be replaced as a matter of urgency. Against that backdrop, European perspectives are a moral victory for the country’s leaders, but does not change the fate of the citizens at large. It is incorrect to think that the tragedy in the Middle East will draw our citizens away from the situation in Ukraine, particularly as Europe is not investing military resources in Gaza. Yet the lack of appetite of the American Congress to vote through additional funding is lending weight to the idea that we are moving towards a long war with an uncertain outcome. The war is, admittedly, haemorrhaging popularity in Russia. The country’s presidential elections will certainly take place in March of next year and the result will come as no surprise to anyone, but on the 13th of the same month, in accordance with its constitution, the Ukrainians will also elect or re-elect their President. As martial law is currently in force, the general elections, which should have been held in October of this year, had to be postponed. It appears that the government is also hesitant to hold a presidential election, for the same reason: the situation of war does not allow it. But Russia is also at war. In an obviously misleading paradox, some people in Europe and the rest of the world would conclude from this that Russia is more democratic than Ukraine and the EU is giving its support to a false democracy. In other words, if Ukraine does not appear to be more democratic than Russia it will lose support, sooner or later.
As regards enlargement to the Balkans, the required progress remains slow or non-existent. Last Sunday, the Serbian President, Aleksandar Vucic (right-wing nationalist), won the election, following a campaign that was rife with violence and rumours of fraud and which certainly saw over-use of the media by the powers that be. Continuity is to be expected, including its pro-Russian stance. The conflict between Serbia and Kosovo is still unresolved. The European Council did not deem Bosnia & Herzegovina ready for accession negotiations; as for North Macedonia, the required constitutional adjustments have not yet been put into place, which means that the opening phase of the accession negotiations cannot be completed.
Finally, EU trade policy is not in the rudest of health; the free-trade agreement with New Zealand is not a success sufficient to offset the car crash of the trade deal with Australia or the growing unlikeliness of one with Mercosur.
This winter will therefore be a politically tough one and we can only hope that it will be followed by spring in every sense of the word.
Renaud Denuit