With the European Commission due to present its 2040 climate target of a 90% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, on Wednesday 2 July, fears persist. For example, the possibility of presenting a 2035 target before COP30 in Belém (Brazil), stemming directly from the 2040 milestone, is crystallising uncertainty.
The international community is expecting the European Union to present its ‘nationally determined contribution’ (NDC), including an emissions reduction target for 2035, by 18 September.
It is therefore necessary for the EU Council to reach a political agreement at the end of the Commission’s legislative presentation to amend European climate law to include the interim 2040 target (ahead of carbon neutrality in 2050). Only this institution can decide the 2035 international target, which is set in relation to the EU’s 2040 target.
An extraordinary ‘Environment’ Council is scheduled for 18 September, to approve the amendment to the ‘Climate Law’ and then validate the EU’s NDC, which could range from 66% (to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050) to 72.5% (with a 90% reduction trajectory by 2040).
However, a number of Member States, including France, Poland and the Czech Republic, have pushed for the 2035 and 2040 targets to be decoupled, refusing to agree to a quantified target without a concrete implementation plan. On 17 June, the Polish Presidency of the EU Council even asked environment ministers about various options including decoupling (see EUROPE 13657/7, 13661/7).
Favourable conditions. French President, Emmanuel Macron, who raised the issue at the European Council on 26 June (see EUROPE 13668/16), is seeking concessions from the Commission on the inclusion of technology neutrality in post-2030 European legislation.
A provisional summary document seen by Agence Europe indicates that the Commission will have to evaluate this framework to “enable the achievement of the target”.
In particular, France would like to see the Renewable Energy Directive (see EUROPE 13296/32) become a directive on “decarbonised energies”, to ensure that renewables and nuclear power are treated equally, as Pascal Canfin (Renew Europe, French) explained to the press (see EUROPE 13669/6).
A communication on ‘enabling conditions’, which is due to be presented with the 2040 legislative proposal, is also expected to focus on the implementation of the ‘Clean Industry’ Package commitments.
International carbon credits. Among the flexibilities included in the proposal, the Commission is expected to take into account “high quality” international carbon credits (Article 6 of the Paris Agreement), from 2036, to help achieve the 2040 target, by contributing up to 3% of emission reductions.
The Greens/EFA MEPs, including the rapporteur on the text, Lena Schilling (Austrian), reject Article 6, which they deem likely to dilute climate efforts. Michael Bloss (German) reminded the press that 3% of credits would represent 145 million tonnes, or more than half of the emissions forecast under the ETS in 2040.
Tiemo Wölken (German), S&D coordinator of the European Parliament’s Committee on Environment (ENVI), also stressed the “harmful role” played in the past by international credits in third countries and called for an explicit exclusion.
For EPP coordinator, Peter Liese (German), however, these credits could be a temporary solution to help non-EU countries become carbon neutral. However, he is calling for “high-quality”projects to be funded (see EUROPE 13670/10).
The Commission’s provisional document on the 2040 target states that “the origin, quality criteria and other conditions concerning the acquisition and use of any such credits” will subsequently have to be regulated by EU law.
Negative emissions. The legislative proposal could also take into account permanent national absorptions under the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) to compensate for residual emissions in sectors where these are difficult to reduce, especially after 2039, when no new allowances will be made available.
Peter Liese, who spoke to the press on 30 June (see EUROPE 13670/10), has long supported this position.
Denmark, which took over the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union on Tuesday 1 July, has announced its intention to make climate issues a priority that will cut across all sectoral policies. As a result, the country is considering conclusive outcomes to future discussions between Member States (see EUROPE 13664/9).
See the Danish Presidency programme: https://aeur.eu/f/HFO
Read the summary document: https://aeur.eu/f/hnm (Original version in French by Pauline Denys and Nithya Paquiry)