Will the European Union be able to present a 2035 target for reducing greenhouse gas emissions before COP30 in Belém (Brazil), in November? This is the question being asked in the wake of a lively debate between leaders at the European Summit, on Thursday 26 June, on the EU’s interim climate target for 2040, ahead of carbon neutrality in 2050 (see EUROPE 13668/7).
Initially, the European Commission wanted the 2035 target to be formulated on the basis of the proposal for 2040, expected on 2 July. Time is running out, however, as the EU Council and the European Parliament will then have to reach an agreement on incorporating this new 2040 target into European climate law.
“If we want to connect the 2040 and 2035 horizons, we have to move fast”, Pascal Canfin MEP (Renew Europe, French) told the press, emphasising that his group supported the Commission’s approach.
However, this is not the case for some Member States, such as France, which is considering decoupling the two targets, as its President, Emmanuel Macron, suggested at the end of the European summit (see EUROPE 13668/7).
According to Mr Canfin, it will in any case not be possible to reach a majority, either in the Council or the Parliament, on a proposal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 90% by 2040 compared to 1990 levels without including a series of flexibilities.
These include the taking into account of international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement on climate, i.e. the inclusion in the climate target of emission reduction projects financed by the EU in third countries.
Other possible flexibilities would be the inclusion of negative emissions in the EU Emissions Trading System (ETS) and the 2040 target, and the introduction of a mechanism to avoid penalising states that underperform in some areas of emissions reduction but outperform in others.
Mr Canfin then stressed the importance for France of obtaining certain guarantees, such as recognition of the principle of technological neutrality, in order to achieve equal treatment for renewables and nuclear power within the post-2030 European legislative framework.
In his view, the pressure exerted by Mr Macron the day before was aimed precisely at ensuring that France obtained these guarantees. “I think he’ll get them. We will see on Wednesday”, said Mr Canfin, who believes that “the situation did not get out of hand” during the debate between leaders and that the Commission could “move forward” with its proposal on 2 July.
Looking ahead, he explained that, on the Parliament’s side, it would be necessary to agree on a simplified urgent procedure, and felt that a majority like the one that supported the formation of the ‘von der Leyen II’ Commission would be the only option for passing the proposal. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)