The President of the United States, Donald Trump, dreams of annexing Greenland. The Prime Minister of Denmark, Mette Frederiksen, aspires to make a success of her Presidency of the Council of the European Union. The second half of this year, 2025, will be informed by this priority. Greenland’s fate looks like it has dominated the first half of the year.
Greenland is part of Denmark, but this has not always been the case. It was a territory of the European Communities, but asked to withdraw: it did so in early 1985 following a referendum (in which 53% voted to leave). Denmark, a former member of the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), joined the European Community at the same time as the United Kingdom and Ireland (1973). All these countries have held key referendums. In June 1993, the Danes narrowly rejected the Treaty on European Union, then, following a series of negotiations, ratified it in May 1993. For a long time, they enjoyed certain derogations, but as the context changed, they voted massively in June 2022 to give up their opt-out concerning the EU Security and Defence Policy (the war in Ukraine may have had something to do with this) (see EUROPE 12975/5). Since then, Denmark has become one of the champions of solid European defence. The United Kingdom held two referendums (continued membership of the EU confirmed in 1975, then rejected in 2016) and Ireland has put almost every European treaty to the people.
But getting back to Greenland, the largest island in the world, but by no means the most densely populated (57,000 inhabitants). From a cartographic point of view, it is part of the continent of North America. But the Vikings took control of it in about the year 1000 and remained there for four centuries, when they were replaced by the Inuit, who had voyaged there from the Canadian Arctic and North Alaska. In the 18th century, there was a kingdom of Denmark and Norway, which colonised the island and consolidated the practice of Christianity there, in its Lutheran iteration. Norway was given to Sweden by the Treaty of Kiel (1814).
This marked the start of Denmark’s sovereignty over Greenland and Iceland. The latter would later challenge the Monroe doctrine. In 1867, the United States made a bid to buy both entities. It made a similar offer in 1910, then the President Truman attempted to buy Greenland only in 1946. Denmark turned all these offers down, but was unable to block the siting of American bases on the island. Greenland, meanwhile, began to gain autonomy, moving from the status of colony to that of overseas territory (1953) and then to broader autonomy again, sealed by the referendum of November 2008. Greenland, which is still Danish, enjoys “State” competences, other than for monetary policy, national defence and foreign policy, but has the right to take part in any international negotiations directly concerning it.
Greenland has become a democracy in the western style, but its legislative powers remain in the control of the Danish Parliament and Supreme Court, under a complex procedure. In the general elections of 2021, the two glorious parties (Social Democrats and Ecologist Left) declared in favour of the island’s independence, but were defeated in March of this year in an election that was convincingly brought home by the centre-right party, followed by the pro-independence party. The aid granted to the island by the Danish State is not inconsiderable; this would be lost in the event of independence, a strong possibility in a referendum.
During the course of his first term in office, in 2019, Donald Trump proposed to buy Greenland, but his offer was turned down flat by the Danish government. Under the Biden administration, Secretary of State Antony Blinken thought he had brought an end to the matter by stating that such an acquisition was of no interest to the United States. Following his re-election, however, Trump stated the opposite, even hinting at the use of force to bring this about. Speaking before the press on 7 January 2025, he stressed that the country ‘needed’ to take control of Greenland, not ruling out military intervention. Copenhagen took this threat seriously. On 28 January, the country’s Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen, toured three capital cities, Berlin, Paris and Brussels, to obtain the support of former German chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron and the new Secretary General of NATO, Mark Rutte. That same month, a survey of the residents of Greenland indicated that 85% of them were against joining the United States.
On 3 February, following an informal meeting of the European Council, its President, António Costa, pledged that the EU would defend the territorial integrity of Greenland (see EUROPE 13571/2). But in his speech before the American Congress on 4 March, Trump insisted that the US would get Greenland one way or another. Vice President J.D. Vance touched down on the island on 28 March, uninvited. He expressed a wish to address the Greenlanders, but was extended no very warm welcome and had to make do with a visit to the American military base.
This obsession of the Trump administration can obviously be explained by the island’s wealth of raw materials (rare earths, natural gas, etc...) and its location in the Arctic, a region of growing strategic importance as melting ice resulting from climate change will create new shipping routes, which may also be of interest to Russia.
At the plenary session of the European Parliament on 6 May, many MEPs stressed that the future of Greenland should lie in the hands of those who live there, rather than an intimidating superpower (see EUROPE 13634/15).
Has the storm now passed? The matter seems to have been put to bed. And it would have been, had the heads of the governments of Denmark and Greenland not officially invited President Macron to visit the island, which he did on 15 June (before travelling onwards to Canada for the G7 summit). While there, he expressed the solidarity of the European Union and criticised the American actions, going on to stress that France was at Greenland’s disposal for joint military exercises aimed at reinforcing the security of the region.
Greenland may have left the EU 40 years ago, but it has not burnt its bridges. Agreements have been concluded over the years. On 12 December 2024, the new partnership for sustainable fisheries (2025-2030) was officially signed off (see EUROPE 13545/10). The agreement was approved by the committee on fisheries in the European Parliament on 22 May of this year (see EUROPE 13646/10).
All things considered, relations between the European Union and Denmark, including Greenland, are at a high ebb. Copenhagen is to take over the Presidency of the Council of the EU, a duty to which it will bring years of experience. It will have to reopen a number of ‘trilogues’ that were not concluded under the Polish Presidency, such as the texts about taking down online images of child sexual abuse (see EUROPE 13648/21) and on ‘greenwashing’ (see EUROPE 13667/11). It will have a major role to play in shaping the forthcoming multi-annual financial framework. With regard to this, Prime Minister Frederiksen stated on 3 June that Denmark was no longer in the camp of the so-called ‘frugal’ countries, as rearmament of Europe, on which all the rest will depend, needs to be paid for (see EUROPE 13652/25).
The official programme of the Danish Presidency was presented on 19 June (see EUROPE 13663/9). As it was for the Polish authorities, security is the cardinal duty, specifically militating for ‘a safe, competitive and green Europe’. The official document, 46 pages in length, summarises various areas dealt with by the Council. It highlights the importance of putting money into boosting Europe’s autonomy. It also sets out entirely justifiable concerns over resilience, democracy, the climate, social issues, the rule of law and Ukraine. It touches upon the situation in the Middle East, expressing hopes of de-escalation and support for a two-State solution, but makes no mention of the humanitarian situation in Gaza.
Finally, Danish domestic policy has long taken a tough stance on migration. Within this framework, Denmark, the Netherlands and Italy held a breakfast (a new tradition that began in 2024) before the start of the European Council on 26 June of this year, inviting the 14 EU countries for which migration is the most sensitive issue, particularly on the question of managing returns of migrants found to be in the country illegally (see EUROPE 13668/8).
The Danish Presidency of the Council follows a critical European Council and a NATO summit, during which the Allies took pains not to get on the wrong side of President Trump. There is nothing to say that the Europeans will draw much benefit from this blatant sycophancy, but Spain’s sovereignist attitude does not seem to be doing it any good, either.
The programme of the Danish Presidency makes no mention of Greenland, which is understandable. We must certainly hope that this light-touch policy will pay off, rather than playing Cassandra. But Washington showed very recently just how unpredictable it can be; the EU should therefore be prepared for any eventuality during the second half of 2025.
Renaud Denuit