The World Trade Organization (WTO) provides an overview of the impact of tariffs on world trade with the publication of the ‘Global Outlook and Statistics’ document, on Wednesday 16 April. The Organization forecasts a decline in world merchandise trade of 0.2% in 2025, based on the tariffs applied as of 14 April. The so-called “reciprocal” tariffs of US President Donald Trump are therefore not taken into account. These could lead to a 1.5% decline in world merchandise trade, and particularly affect least developed countries, which are highly export-oriented.
However, if the various tariff announcements had not taken place since the start of the year, world merchandise trade would have been expected to be up by around 3%.
In North America alone, exports are expected to decline by 12.6% in the current scenario, according to the WTO, and imports by 9.6%.
The Director-General of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, expressed her concern about these trends: “The enduring uncertainty threatens to act as a brake on global growth, with severe negative consequences for the world, the most vulnerable economies in particular”.
Diversions of flows are also a concern for the Organization: exports of Chinese goods to regions other than North America are expected to increase by between 4% and 9% in 2025.
A lower-than-expected rise in services. For the first time, the WTO has included services trade in its overview of world trade, which is benefiting from a more favourable climate. As a result, services trade is set to increase by 4% in 2025, although this is lower than expected, as services are indirectly affected by the various customs barriers. This is the case, for example, in freight shipping and logistics services at ports and airports, or in international travel.
See the ‘Global Trade Outlook and Statistics’: https://aeur.eu/f/gg0 (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)