The foreign affairs ministers will meet in Brussels on Monday 18 November for what could be the very last Council in this format for the EU’s High Representative, Josep Borrell, with a very full agenda: Ukraine, the Middle East, Georgia, the US elections and the Horn of Africa.
First, as usual, the ministers are due to discuss the situation in Ukraine, following an exchange with the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Andrii Sybiha, by videoconference.
The military situation on the ground is complicated, and the election of Donald Trump in the United States has led to fears that American support will cease and the Ukrainians will have to negotiate.
On Tuesday 12 November, Mr Borrell announced that he would be discussing with the ministers the possible end of US support for Ukraine and the measures that Europeans could take in this context (see EUROPE 13523/15).
The ministers could discuss the 15th sanctions package on which the EU is starting work. This could include targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” (see EUROPE 13524/5).
The Council is also expected to discuss the involvement of third countries in the conflict, in particular the response to the presence of North Korean soldiers during the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The possible strengthening of Chinese support for Russia could also be discussed. According to a senior European official, citing intelligence services, factories in China are producing drones for Russia. “We can’t yet say how we’re going to react until we have clear information about what’s going on”, he explained. In his view, it is not yet clear whether these factories are producing drones for Russia, whether the drones have been transported to Russia and whether the Chinese authorities are aware of the situation. These factors “make it necessary to look very closely at whether China is moving away from its hitherto neutral stance”, said a diplomat.
The ministers could also adopt new restrictive measures concerning the transfer of Iranian ballistic missiles to Russia.
The Council will hold a discussion on recent developments in the Middle East, particularly in Gaza and Lebanon.
The High Representative would like the heads of European diplomacy to discuss what action the EU could take following the opinion of the International Court of Justice and the United Nations resolutions. Mr Borrell will propose the suspension of political dialogue with Israel (see EUROPE 13524/20). “From the outset, we have said that actions must have consequences. This is Mr Borrell’s last Foreign Affairs Council, and he is looking for a marginal consequence”, explained a senior European official. He specified that if this suspension were adopted, an Association Council would be organised with Israel to inform it of the situation and give it the opportunity to react.
According to a European diplomat, the question of whether the human rights implications of certain Israeli actions are in line with the conditions set out in the Association Agreement is worth asking. “It’s a legitimate question, and one we need to think about. At the same time, the idea is to maintain channels of communication with the Israeli authorities, and we have to be very careful about the messages we send out through these measures, which reduce the scope for action vis-à-vis our partners in this crisis”, this diplomat summed up.
Such a suspension would require the unanimous agreement of the Member States. A number of Member States have already voiced their opposition to the measure, some on the substance of the issue itself, others on the method, as the proposal was sent at the last minute and did not allow for an in-depth study. Suspending the dialogue “would not be a very intelligent way of dealing with Israel at the moment. We need to keep the channels of communication open”, explained a source.
The ministers are also expected to discuss the humanitarian situation in Gaza, particularly in the north of the enclave, as well as the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), whose future is compromised by new Israeli laws limiting its scope for action (see EUROPE 13516/17).
The Council will discuss the situation in Georgia, in relation to the parliamentary elections held on 26 October, which Europeans consider to have been fraudulent (see EUROPE 13514/4). The EU has already taken a number of measures against the country since the adoption of laws deemed contrary to European values, including freezing accession negotiations with Tbilisi, withholding funds and reducing political contacts. The European heads of diplomacy could discuss additional measures, such as suspending visa liberalisation for members of the Georgian government, but no decision is expected to be taken at the Council. Conversely, the EU could increase its funding for Georgian civil society and its support for Georgians.
At their lunch, the EU ministers will discuss transatlantic relations following the election of Donald Trump. Ministers could reiterate the importance of this relationship and stress that European unity is essential to defend the EU’s interests.
Over and above the risks of a hardening of US policy towards the EU, the ministers could examine the possibility not only of making a global offer to the United States, but also of the EU’s strengths in the relationship and the support it can give to the United States and its priorities, particularly the China question, according to one diplomat.
A senior European official explained that the High Representative wanted to discuss the impact of the US election result on Ukraine, the Middle East and multilateralism.
Finally, the European ministers will hold a rapid exchange of views on the Horn of Africa, in the light of the latest developments in the region, notably in Sudan (see EUROPE 13500/27), Somalia and the Red Sea.
Since 20 October, at least 124 civilians have been killed in Gezira State (east-central Sudan) and 135,000 people have fled to other parts of the country, according to the United Nations.
On Tuesday 12 November, the United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Political Affairs, Rosemary DiCarlo, condemned the intensification of military operations by the belligerents as the rainy season drew to a close, thanks to “considerable external support, including a constant flow of arms”.
“To put it bluntly, certain purported allies of the parties are enabling the slaughter in Sudan. This is unconscionable, it is illegal, and it must end”, she told the UN Security Council.
According to a European source, the EU wants to step up the pressure on Sudan, with the possible adoption of a new package of sanctions.
The European ministers may also discuss the situation in Somalia, where tensions with Ethiopia persist (see EUROPE 13475/27).
The Council will be preceded by a breakfast with the Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mihai Popșoi. The country, a candidate for EU membership, faced a major destabilisation campaign in the run-up to the referendum on enshrining EU membership in the Constitution and the presidential election. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Bernard Denuit)