European defence ministers will meet on Tuesday 19 November to discuss EU support for Ukraine and the report by former Finnish President Sauli Niinistö on the EU’s defence preparedness.
EU military support for Ukraine. In particular, ministers are expected to discuss the release of €6.6 billion from the ‘European Peace Facility’. Discussions are continuing in order to reach an agreement on the voluntary contribution method (see EUROPE 13503/7), which would make it possible to overcome the Hungarian block. “It will be the same amount (for each of the 26 participating Member States) and the same rules, but the method for collecting the money is changing”, explained a European source. The source specified that these contributions had to be transposed into 26 administrative arrangements - one per Member State - covering payment requests, reimbursement rates and the compensation system. These contributions also highlight the risk of Member States failing to honour their commitments, but according to this source, they are politically binding. The same source said that they did not expect a decisive breakthrough on the decision, but hoped that the discussion would provide answers to Member States’ questions.
Revision of the military assistance mission. In addition, while the extension of the EU’s military assistance mission to Ukraine (EUMAM) for two years has already been agreed (see EUROPE 13521/5), ministers are likely to discuss the proposal by the European External Action Service - currently blocked by Hungary - to create a coordination unit in Ukraine. The mission, which has already trained 65,000 soldiers, is due to undergo a strategic review early next year.
Funds from frozen Russian assets. Ministers may discuss the second tranche of windfall profits from frozen Russian assets, amounting to €1.9 billion (see EUROPE 13462/5). These funds are not expected to be available before next spring, but the Europeans are already working with the Ukrainians on the arrangements for disbursing the funds, which are earmarked for artillery, anti-aircraft defence systems and the Ukrainian defence industry. Bilateral loans from G7 countries may also be discussed (see EUROPE 13513/7).
Munitions. Ministers may also take stock of the ammunition initiative. The Europeans are close to reaching the one million target, initially set for March 2024. Ninety-eight percent of the target had been reached a few days ago, according to one source.
Ministers will then have an exchange of views with the Ukrainian Defence Minister, Rustem Umerov, and President Zelensky’s adviser on strategic affairs, Alexander Kamyshin, both via videoconference, as well as with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, on support for Kyiv and EU/NATO cooperation in this area.
EU preparedness. Over lunch, the Council will then hold a debate on defence preparedness, in light of Sauli Niinistö’s report on strengthening Europe’s civil and military preparedness, presented on 30 October (see EUROPE 13515/1). Mr Niinistö will join ministers for discussions.
This discussion is likely to enable ministers to express their views on the military aspects of the report, while the future European Commission and High Representative will have to prepare a strategy on the EU’s state of preparedness.
White Paper on Defence. The discussion is also likely to focus on expectations for the ‘White Paper’ on Defence, expected in the first 100 days of the new mandate, which is expected to cover investment needs, the defence industry, gaps in critical capabilities and funding.
The EU’s rapid deployment capability. Ministers are expected to briefly be informed of developments concerning the EU’s rapid deployment capability. In this context, the European External Action Service announced, on Thursday 14 November, that the second live military exercise (LIVEX) would be held in Bergen, Germany, from 25 November to 10 December. It will entail the deployment of the EU task force for a predefined scenario. Fifteen Member States (Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Spain, France, Hungary, Croatia, Ireland, Luxembourg, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Sweden) and more than 1,700 soldiers will be taking part. The aim is to test interoperability in the planning and conduct of joint operations at all levels.
Permanent structured cooperation. Ministers are also expected to take note of the adoption the previous day of conclusions on the strategic review of Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO). They are expected to consider that PESCO should be more attractive and focus more on the critical needs of Member States. The Council is likely to call for stronger links between PESCO and EU funding programmes and for facilitation of Ukraine’s participation in projects.
European Defence Agency. Finally, the Council is likely to adopt guidelines for the work of the European Defence Agency (EDA) for 2025. The Council meeting will be preceded by a meeting of the EDA’s Steering Board. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)