At an informal dinner in Brussels on Monday 17 June, the heads of state or government of the countries of the European Union drew some initial conclusions from the results of the European elections, which saw a pro-European political majority maintained despite a surge in sovereignist and nationalist forces.
They have also tested a number of names for nominations to the top European posts - Presidency of the European Commission, Presidency of the European Council and High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy - and are due to meet at the European Council on Thursday 27 and 28 June to make their decision, the same time as adopting their strategic agenda for the period 2024-2029 (see EUROPE 13432/1).
“We had a good discussion, which I think goes in the right direction. But no agreement today at this stage”, declared the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, after the informal dinner. “It was always clear that in June we need to make two decisions: one on the political cycle and the other on the strategic agenda”, he added. He went on to stress that it was important to “guarantee the transparency and inclusivity of the process”.
“I think we have to (...) understand what the strategic agenda is, that there is convergence and then there are the names behind it”, added French President Emmanuel Macron. Reaching an agreement by the end of June, two days before the French parliamentary elections, is desirable, but “not an end in itself”.
The prevailing impression at the start of the informal summit was one of a convergence of views on granting the European People’s Party (EPP) the presidency of the European Commission, as winner of the European elections. Europe’s Christian Democrats are pushing for their candidate, Germany’s Ursula von der Leyen, to win a second term at the helm of the EU institution.
In order for it to obtain an absolute majority of MEPs (361 votes in 2024), the other European political parties likely to support it would divide up the other posts to be filled as follows: - the awarding of the Presidency of the European Council to the Party of European Socialists (PES), which could go to former Portuguese Prime Minister António Costa; - the award of the post of High Representative of the Union to the centrists and liberals, which could be filled by Estonia’s Kaja Kallas.
Boosted by its electoral gains, the EPP is said to have tried to up the ante by asking for the Presidency of the European Council after Mr Costa’s two-and-a-half-year term, in addition to the Presidency of the Commission and the European Parliament for two-and-a-half years.
The Socialists and Liberals acknowledged that the EPP was trying to raise the stakes, but argued that the Christian Democrats could hardly be too greedy, at the risk of their potential partners in a pro-European majority in Parliament being reluctant to support Ursula von der Leyen’s candidature to head the Commission.
“It was more a search for balance between the EPP and the PES that stalled the agreement this evening”, noted a European source.
Costa. The Portuguese Prime Minister, Luís Montenegro, reiterated “absolutely unequivocally Portugal’s support” for his predecessor’s appointment as President of the European Council. According to him, the question of a single mandate for Mr Costa was not discussed at the meeting.
Kallas. With regard to the Kallas option, which appears to have been less successful than the other two nominations, the Finnish Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, said that Ms Kallas was “well known in our region” and was “completely in line with our liberal approach”. On X, the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, said that the Estonian Prime Minister had a “very good understanding of Ukrainian and Russian realities”.
However, Ms Kallas’ very firm stance on Russia - which earned her a place on a Russian wanted list for destroying monuments to Soviet soldiers - may worry some leaders. On his arrival at the summit, Slovakian President Peter Pellegrini urged caution over who would represent the EU at international level, saying that “we must not create even more tension than there actually is”. “There has to be someone who can calm things down”, he added.
At the end of the informal summit, the Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, openly criticised the attitude of the European Christian Democrats, who have a majority in the European Council, saying that “the will of the European people was ignored today” in Brussels. “The result of the European election is clear: right-wing parties got stronger, the Left and the liberals lost ground. The EPP, on the other hand, instead of listening to the voters, finally teamed up with the socialists and the liberals: today they made a deal and divided the top jobs of the EU among themselves”, he criticised on X. He reiterated his desire to unite the political forces to the right of the Christian Democrats.
Addressing the European leaders, the President of the European Parliament, Roberta Metsola, confirmed that the pro-European political groups in the European Parliament want to go ahead with the process of ‘head of list’ candidates (‘Spitzenkandidaten’). Mr Michel will attend meetings of the Conference of Presidents of the political groups (CoP) on Thursday 20 and Wednesday 26 June for consultations ahead of the European Council on 27 and 28 June. If the EU27 agree on the future Commission Presidency, the person appointed will speak at the CoP on Tuesday 2 July.
A vote on the Commission Presidency could take place on Thursday 18 July in Strasbourg during the European Parliament’s constituent session. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion with editorial staff)