Member States’ ambassadors to the EU will meet in the morning of Friday 24 February to approve the 10th package of sanctions against Russia, according to a diplomat.
24 February is the one-year anniversary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
According to this diplomat, the ambassadors agreed on the 10th package at their meeting on 23 February “with the exception of one element that still needs to be clarified with the Commission”. The agreement between the ambassadors is expected to take place this Friday. This would be the issue of importing rubber from Russia.
In parallel to the ambassadors’ meeting, the first ‘Sanctions Coordinators Forum’ and the second meeting of the High Level Expert Group on Union Restrictive Measures, chaired by Financial Services Commissioner Mairead McGuinness, responsible for sanctions, were held.
The meeting brought together representatives of the 27 Member States as well as companies from various sectors, which apply and are affected by these sanctions.
The coalition of international allies and EU partners was also present, with representatives from various third countries. The Ukrainian First Deputy Prime Minister, Yuliia Svyrydenko, and, via video conference, Andriy Yermak, President Zelensky’s Chief of Staff, also took part in the Forum.
Participants discussed the challenges of cross-border enforcement of sanctions. The European Commission is committed to assisting Member States and companies to effectively implement sanctions.
“Our sanctions are at their most effective when we coordinate with our international partners”, Ms McGuinness said at the end of the Forum.
“We cannot allow loopholes that prevent our measures from reaching their full effect, we cannot allow the targets of sanctions to avoid their impact, and we cannot allow profit-mongers to exploit a time of war for their own selfish benefit”, she added.
For David O'Sullivan, the EU’s special envoy for sanctions implementation, “cooperating with third countries is vital”. “This means making sure that operators know their obligations and consequences of sanctions breaches and, importantly, ensuring that our sanctions are not circumvented, including through third countries”, he said.
According to Karel Lannoo, director general of the independent European think tank Centre for European Policy Studies, which specialises in financial issues, the sanctions have become much more effective over time. “At the beginning, the sanctions had little impact, but now they are more targeted on strategic sectors and are hurting the Russian government much more”, he explained to EUROPE in an interview on Wednesday 22 February.
Russia’s disconnection from the SWIFT banking system, for example, has done little good, according to the researcher. Credit card services, such as Mastercard and Visa, are still usable in Russia, but no longer work for foreign transactions.
On the other hand, one of the weak points is the revenue from oil and gas products. Russia now has to sell to the Indians and Chinese, who buy at a discount. At market prices, oil is selling for around $80 a barrel, compared to $40-60 a barrel for Russian oil.
For the economist, Nicolas Véron, a member of the European think-tank Bruegel, contacted by EUROPE on 22 February, the effectiveness of sanctions, particularly against the oligarchs, is assessed according to three criteria: - circumvention of sanctions; - legal robustness; - the impact of sanctions. For circumvention, it is difficult to answer because the data is not official. As for the legality, “it remains to be seen whether the sanctions will hold up in court, given the volume of sanctions”, he said.
As for the impact, “the effect is quite limited”, said Mr Véron. “The notion that hitting the oligarchs strikes at the heart of power is not entirely true, but it is natural that the EU has done so”, he concluded. (Original version in French by Anne Damiani with Camille-Cerise Gessant)