The future of the provisional Interinstitutional Agreement between the European Parliament and the Slovenian Presidency of the Council of the European Union on the Regulation on the coordination of social security systems appears uncertain, according to information obtained on Tuesday 21 December, on the eve of the discussions on this dossier to be held by the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper I).
The Coreper I meeting is indeed expected to be “very intense” and positions “will evolve until the last minute”, according to several diplomatic sources, as the stakes of such a settlement are high and the political agreement reached is controversial (see EUROPE 12855/10). The various scenarios presented to us show that a single Member State could overturn the qualified majority needed for the EU Council to approve this agreement, as had already happened in March 2019 under the Romanian Presidency (see EUROPE 12225/15).
According to our sources, Austria, Finland, Croatia, Slovakia and Latvia have unclear positions, ranging from opposition to abstention. On the contrary, Luxembourg, the Czech Republic, Denmark and the Netherlands are said to be clearly opposed to the agreement.
The big unknowns are the positions of Germany and Poland. Warsaw’s position will only be stabilised at the last moment, a few hours before this item - scheduled for 11am - is discussed at the meeting and it could be decisive in establishing a blocking minority.
The content of the agreement worries some capitals, as it diverges so much from the mandate defended by the Slovenian Presidency of the EU Council and transmitted to it by the previous Portuguese Presidency. Also, the Slovenian Presidency’s approach was not always to the liking of some delegations. Some have complained about a lack of transparency, as Ljubljana did not consult all Member States.
Fourteen Member States had also asked for more time to analyse the agreement, which the Slovenian Presidency reportedly refused at the last Coreper meeting (see EUROPE 12856/17). The Commission reportedly began working with some key delegations on Sunday to resolve uncertainties and other legal concerns.
Thus, the die is not yet cast for this piece of legislation, which has been the subject of heated and difficult talks for five years now (see EUROPE 11688/23). To access the Slovenian Presidency’s analysis of the compromise reached: https://bit.ly/3pfoubh (Original version in French by Pascal Hansens)