EU Foreign Ministers will discuss responses to the Turkish offensive in Syria at their EU Council meeting in Luxembourg on Monday 14 October.
Initially, the discussion on Syria in the presence of the UN Special Envoy, Geir Pedersen, was supposed to focus on the political process after the announcement of an agreement on the creation of a constitutional committee (see EUROPE 12336/14), but “since the launch of the Turkish intervention, the subject has taken on a whole new dimension”, explained a European source on Friday 11 October.
Only a few hours after the offensive was launched, the Europeans called for its immediate cessation (see EUROPE 12346/8). Since then, diplomatic contacts with the Turkish authorities have been made.
“Ministers will look at the issue from several angles [on Monday]”, said the spokeswoman for the European External Action Service, expecting “additional reactions” from them.
“The priority we must have is to apply pressure”, explained a European source, who, when asked about possible sanctions, said it was still “a little early to say”, adding that the intervention had been launched on 9 October. A few hours earlier, French Secretary of State Amélie de Montchalin announced that sanctions would be on the agenda of the Heads of State and Government at the European Summit on 17 and 18 October. The day before, Flemish Minister-President Jan Jambon called on the EU to take economic measures against Ankara.
The ministerial discussion is expected to address the consequences of the intervention on the fight against the Islamic state organisation, on foreign combatants detained by the Kurds and on its humanitarian impact. “The Kurdish forces that were part of the Syrian Democratic Forces have played and are playing a crucial role in the fight against Daech. On both sides of the Atlantic, abandoning them is not only a bad idea [...], but raises many questions, both strategic and moral”, said European Council President Donald Tusk on 11 October. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s threats to allow refugees to flock to Europe, described as uncalled-for by Mr Tusk, is also expected to be discussed.
Turkish drilling. Another issue of concern to Europeans to be discussed is Turkey's drilling activities off the southern coast of Cyprus (see EUROPE 12342/15). “This action constitutes an unprecedented escalation and the most severe provocation to date”, Cypriot President Nikos Anastasiades explained on 11 October at a press briefing in Cyprus with Tusk. He called for “sending a strong message to Turkey”, adding that “a more concrete response” was needed.
Ministers and then leaders are expected to decide on the measures to be adopted. Last July (see EUROPE 12297/7), the EU Council invited the High Representative and the Commission “to continue their work on options for targeted measures in view of the fact that Turkey is continuing its drilling activities in the eastern Mediterranean”. According to a European source, this work is progressing.
Afghanistan. In addition to Turkey, ministers will review the situation in Afghanistan, particularly after the presidential election on 28 September (see EUROPE 12338/15). They will discuss EU support for the peace process.
Ukraine. Over lunch, after a brief discussion of the Twenty-Eight, the heads of diplomacy will be joined by their new Ukrainian counterpart, Vadym Prystaiko, to take stock of EU support, the state of reforms and the conflict in eastern Ukraine, following the positive results at the last trilateral group meeting (see EUROPE 12340/27).
Middle East and Libya. Briefly, the heads of diplomacy will also address: - the question of the Iranian nuclear agreement, given that Tehran is threatening to take further measures on 6 November that would run counter to the Joint Action Plan; - the situation in Iraq, in particular the latest demonstrations in the country (see EUROPE 12341/28); - the situation in Libya.
Latin America. Ministers will review the political situation in two Latin American countries. Criticizing the lack of dialogue between the Ortega government and the political opposition in Nicaragua, they will formally adopt a legal framework for sanctions against representatives of the Nicaraguan authorities (see EUROPE 12335/4), as well as specific conclusions. On Venezuela, ministers will be briefed about the international meetings held on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly at the end of September. The EU recently imposed financial sanctions on seven relatives of the Maduro regime, bringing the number of Venezuelans targeted by European sanctions to 25 (see EUROPE 12337/29).
Cameroon. The EU Council is expected to adopt, without debate, conclusions on the situation in Cameroon. An opportunity for the EU to welcome the end of the military court proceedings against Maurice Kamto, leader of the Mouvement pour la renaissance du Cameroun party, and his supporters, but also to call for the continuation of the national dialogue that took place recently in Yaoundé, in order to promote a sustainable way out of the crisis (see EUROPE 12326/23). The EU Council should also reiterate the importance of respect for human rights, fundamental freedoms, the rule of law and international humanitarian law. The Union is expected to call for an end to the violence in the northwest and southwest regions of the country, which is worsening the humanitarian crisis.
Thailand. Without discussion, Ministers will adopt conclusions on Thailand, in which they are expected to stress the importance of taking steps to broaden bilateral relations, particularly the timely signature of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, and of making progress towards the resumption of negotiations on a free trade agreement.
Bosnia and Herzegovina. The EU Council is also expected to welcome the continuation of the EUFOR Althea operation, whose mandate is to be renewed by the UN Security Council in November. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant with Aminata Niang and Mathieu Bion)