Even as diplomatic language goes, it’s vague. But “a pathway to a possible deal” is all we’ve got.
Politicians and commentators are fond of analysing the “mood music” around major events, especially if there is little detail or substance to look at. And the mood has definitely lifted since last week, when the EU rubbished the UK’s latest plan to try to keep the Irish border open. As recently as Tuesday, UK government sources were saying a deal looked “impossible” following a tough phone call between the British and German leaders (and the ensuing row over a xenophobic Leave.EU poster) (EUROPE 12344/17).
EU agriculture commissioner Phil Hogan said on Friday that he was “cautiously optimistic”. EU lead negotiator Michel Barnier told MEPs this week that a deal will be “difficult, but still possible” (EUROPE 12345/5). Even European Council president Donald Tusk – who was ready to give up all hope if no progress could be made by today – said he had “received promising signals” from Irish prime minister Leo Varadkar. But Mr Tusk also sounded a note of caution: “Of course, there is no guarantee of success and the time is practically up,” he told reporters in Cyprus this morning. “But even the slightest chance must be used."
The problem is that the substance hasn’t changed. Neither side has abandoned its red lines. The UK’s proposal – to take Northern Ireland out of the customs union but stay tied to EU tariffs and product standards (as long as it has an opt-in or opt-out) – has met with skepticism in the EU. EU officials believe it is akin to asking the EU to adapt its long-held customs code and open a back door to the single market for smugglers.
The focus has now shifted to Brussels, where Brexit secretary Stephen Barclay met with Mr Barnier on Friday morning. Mr Varadkar said the “basis for intensive negotiations can be found” and expects “more detailed proposals” from the UK ahead of a crunch EU leaders’ summit next Thursday. “The less said the better,” he told reporters at an event in Dublin on Friday morning, a phrase that seasoned Brussels-watchers will interpret as code for “we’re close to a deal”.
Eurasia group analysts say it is “highly unlikely” a deal can be done before the EU summit next week and that a second summit and a Brexit extension – “if only ‘technical’ to ratify any deal” – are almost inevitable, followed by a UK general election.
In the meantime, the UK parliament resumes next Monday (after a week’s break) and will sit for a special session next Saturday, 19 October (a deadline laid down in law by MPs keen to stave off no deal). It’s the first time a weekend sitting has taken place since the Falklands War in the early 1980s. (Sarah Collins)