On Friday 12 December, the European Commission officially opened an excessive deficit procedure (EDP) against Finland and recommended a new fiscal trajectory for the country to reduce its excessive deficit by 2028.
“The opening of an excessive deficit procedure for Finland is warranted” and has been “confirmed” by the experts of the Council of the EU, said the European Commissioner for Economy, Valdis Dombrovskis, at the end of the Ecofin Council.
In accordance with the revised Stability and Growth Pact, the new recommended expenditure growth path is as follows: 1.3% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027 and 1.8% in 2028. In this way, the Finnish public deficit should be reduced as follows: 4.5% of GDP in 2025, 4.0% in 2026, 3.9% in 2027 and 2.7% in 2028. Finnish public debt is set to rise from 82.5% of GDP in 2024 to 90.9% in 2026.
The proposed recommendation will be discussed and expected to be adopted by the Ecofin Council in January 2026.
See the European Commission’s draft recommendation: https://aeur.eu/f/jyw
Romania. Taking stock of other ongoing excessive debt procedures, Mr Dombrovskis also reiterated that the European Commission would not propose suspending the granting of European funds to Romania, due to the significant budgetary measures taken over the course of the summer (see EUROPE 13759/14, 13740/16).
Malta/Hungary. With regard to Malta and Hungary, the Commissioner noted “a risk of deviation” from the agreed path, which “may require a stepping up of the procedure in Spring 2026”. (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion)