As COP30 continues in Belém (Brazil) until 21 November (see EUROPE 13750/18), the Global Carbon Budget 2025 report, produced by an international group of over 130 scientists, revealed on Thursday 13 November that global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are set to increase by 1.1% in 2025, reaching a record level (38.1 billion tonnes of CO2).
The report, published at the same time as a new article in the journal Nature, notes that 8% of the increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change, which is weakening terrestrial and oceanic carbon sinks.
According to Professor Pierre Friedlingstein of the Exeter World Systems Institute, who led the study, keeping global warming below 1.5°C is no longer an option.
“At the current rate of emissions, the remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5°C, i.e. 170 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide, will be exhausted before 2030”, he said.
In the EU, emissions are expected to rise by 0.4% in 2025 (due to cooler temperatures and other factors). In the United States, this increase is expected to reach 1.9%, while in China it should be around 0.4%, due to moderate growth in energy consumption combined with strong growth in renewable energies.
The aviation sector is expected to see a significant increase in emissions in 2025 (+6.8%), exceeding pre-Covid-19 levels.
To see the report: https://aeur.eu/f/jev (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)