On Tuesday 11 November, the Commission launched the first migration management cycle under the ‘Pact on Migration and Asylum’ with a report on migration trends in the EU and two draft decisions. These decisions classify Member States into three categories and recommend respective provisional figures (kept confidential) designed to fulfil the pact’s commitment to relocate at least 30,000 people a year or provide €600 million in aid.
While flows to the EU are now declining, according to Frontex, with irregular arrivals down by 35% between July 2024 and July 2025 and expected to fall further on all major migratory routes in 2026 compared with 2024, this first exercise aims to anticipate and manage possible migratory crises in 2026 and to solicit solidarity pledges from Member States. This would be done by means of a solidarity pool funded either by relocation commitments or by financial contributions or material aid, or alternatively, by waiving, for example, the right to send asylum seekers who have arrived in another Member State back to the competent countries (‘Dublin offsets’).
As required by the pact, the Commission has therefore classified member countries into three categories, explained European Commissioner Magnus Brunner on 11 November, indicating that “solidarity will go hand in hand” with the responsibilities of front-line countries to fully implement the Dublin Regulation.
In response to a pressing request from countries such as Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands and Sweden, the Commission has also provided that, “in order to ensure the balance between solidarity and fair sharing of responsibility [...], Article 60(3) of [Regulation (EU) 2024/1351] establishes that contributing Member States are not required to implement their pledges [...] towards a benefitting Member State where the Commission has identified systemic shortcomings in that benefitting Member State with regard to the responsibility rules”.
In other words, Member States will be able to request that their solidarity obligation not be invoked if the recipient countries continue to systematically allow migrants or asylum seekers to pass through to other Member States when they are legally obliged to keep them on their territory.
Based on criteria such as irregular arrivals, number of asylum applications, and rescues at sea in relation to population or GDP, the Commission has proposed three categories:
- Greece and Cyprus, which are under migratory pressure due to a disproportionate level of arrivals over the past year, as well as Spain and Italy, due to a disproportionate number of arrivals following rescue operations at sea, are considered to be under migratory pressure and will be able to benefit from the solidarity pool and its range of contributions from mid-2026;
- Belgium, Bulgaria, Germany, Estonia, Ireland, France, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Poland and Finland are “at risk of migratory pressure”, due to a high number of arrivals, the persistent saturation of their reception systems or the risk of the instrumentalisation of migrants. They will have priority access to other aid measures, such as increased support from EU agencies or European funds;
- Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Estonia, Croatia, Austria and Poland, faced with a significant migratory situation due to the cumulative pressures of the last five years or an exponential rise in asylum applications, will be able to request a total or partial deduction of their solidarity contributions for the coming year.
All other countries not listed will be unable to claim any exemption.
The Council of the EU will have to approve these two projects in December. The aid figures for Member States, based on a distribution key and a ‘fair share’ principle, will then be made public.
The Commission notes in its report that, relative to GDP and population, Germany received the highest number of applications for international protection, followed by France, Spain and Italy.
Member States have welcomed approximately 1,394,000 people into their national systems, mainly in Germany, Italy, France, the Netherlands and Austria. In terms of GDP and population, Germany, Luxembourg, Austria and Ireland welcomed the largest numbers.
Secondary movements. Despite a 25% year-on-year fall, secondary movements into the EU remain a challenge for the main destination countries.
In absolute figures, Greece, Germany, Croatia, Italy and France were the main countries of departure, while Germany, France, Belgium, Italy and the Netherlands were the most affected host countries. The main routes for unauthorised movements were Greece to Germany, Croatia to Germany, Italy to Germany and Italy to France.
Further information: https://aeur.eu/f/jdi (Original version in French by Solenn Paulic)