Europe’s Environment and Climate Ministers will meet again on Thursday 18 September for an extraordinary Environment Council, which has a new focus.
Although the initial aim of the meeting was to adopt a ‘general approach’ on the amendment to the European Climate Law, the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU decided otherwise (see EUROPE 13710/1).
At their meeting on Friday 12 September, it emerged that there would be no qualified majority of the 27 Member States to set the interim target of a 90% reduction in net greenhouse gas emissions (compared to 1990 levels) by 2040 (see EUROPE 13708/1).
A number of countries have called for a discussion on the subject at the European Council meeting on 23 and 24 October (see EUROPE 13701/18).
The new challenge for the Environment Council is therefore to focus on the EU’s international position on its climate ambitions for 2035. Indeed, the EU was expected to present a ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC) including an emissions reduction target for 2035, and to calculate this on the basis of the trajectory between the -55% target for 2030 and the -90% target for 2040, before achieving carbon neutrality in 2050.
However, no agreement is in sight on this 2040 target, which was the subject of a rather late legislative proposal from the European Commission on 2 July (see EUROPE 13672/2).
So as not to arrive empty-handed at the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit in New York on 24 September, the Danish Presidency of the EU Council has proposed a ‘declaration of intent’ highlighting the EU’s climate efforts. This includes an indicative emissions reduction range of between 66.3% and 72.5%.
The EU’s credibility is therefore at stake on the international stage. At a time when more than thirty countries – including Brazil and the United Kingdom – have already announced their post-2030 contributions, and China is due to announce its targets at the United Nations General Assembly, the European Union is under pressure from all sides to set out a coherent 2035 trajectory.
The declaration of intent appears to be a temporary solution, but would give the EU the opportunity to display a common position in New York, while keeping negotiations on the 2040 target open. However, several Member States are stressing that this text must remain strictly provisional and must not precondition future discussions on the ‘Climate Law’ and the NDC.
This declaration, like the NDC, must be adopted unanimously.
“It remains to be seen tomorrow whether the Ministers will consider other options or even abandon the range”, said a European diplomat, who made no secret of the fact that the opinions of the Member States were still divided.
The objective of the Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU remains to present a NDC in due form before the start of COP30, which will take place between 10 and 21 November in Bélem (Brazil). It is also still pushing for the 2035 target to be derived directly from an approved 2040 target.
This is a complicated ambition to achieve in a limited timeframe, given that an agreement at European ministerial level cannot be reached until after the European Council on 23 and 24 October.
It should also be noted that discussions are continuing simultaneously in the European Parliament on the 2040 target. The coordinators in the Committee on Environment could potentially agree that a vote should take place in committee after the discussion in the European Council. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys with Nithya Paquiry)