While no agreement will be reached on the EU’s 2040 climate target at the Environment Council on Thursday 18 September (see EUROPE 13708/1), on Tuesday 16 September, Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) discussed the proposal for a ‘statement of intent’ that the EU could present before COP30, in November.
Indeed, the Danish Presidency of the EU Council asked the ambassadors to find a solution for the EU’s draft Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC), which includes a target for reducing net greenhouse gas emissions by 2035.
While the Presidency’s initial intention was to present an NDC in time with a fixed 2035 target derived directly from the EU’s 2040 target, it is now proposing to present a range for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 of between 66.3% and 72.5%.
This makes it possible to take account, on the one hand, of an indicative linear trajectory between the EU’s climate targets for 2030 and 2050, and on the other hand, of the trajectory between the 2030 target and the proposed 2040 target (of a 90% reduction), as presented by the European Commission (see EUROPE 13672/2).
This range is intended to be “without prejudice to the agreement on the 2040 target. In a draft agreement dated 15 September and consulted by Agence Europe, the Presidency also states that this range, which is intended to be temporary, is “without prejudice to the final agreement on the EU’s 2040 climate target in European climate legislation”.
So, rather than presenting the range directly in a draft NDC, the Danish Presidency wants to communicate a ‘statement of intent’ by 24 September, at the UN Secretary-General’s Climate Summit.
By presenting the 2035 target in this form, the Presidency would therefore avoid directly decoupling the 2040 and 2035 targets, since it still wants the final NDC to be adopted after the completion of negotiations on the 2040 target.
If the 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 proposed by the European Commission were to be approved by the Member States, the 2035 target would be set at 72.5%, which is the most ambitious trajectory.
The Danish Presidency emphasises “broad support”. This approach, which would “ensure that the EU does not go to the UN climate summit empty-handed”, received “broad support” at the Coreper meeting, according to the Danish Presidency.
It explained, however, that positions differed “as to the exact content and balance to be found” in the statement of intent. The aim now is to reach unanimous agreement on this statement at the Environment Council.
During the discussion in Coreper, only Hungary directly objected to the proposed range of 66.3% to 72.5%, according to our information. Other countries are said to have found it too ambitious or, on the contrary, not ambitious enough. A number of Member States, including France, also invoked their right of reservation.
It is not certain that the Danish Presidency has much flexibility to alter the range, “given that it is intended to be based on science”, explained a source present at the discussions.
European leaders will take up the 2040 target. The proposed target of a 90% reduction in emissions by 2040 in the ‘European Climate Law’ was not discussed further. A simple thematic debate will be held at the Environment Council on 18 September.
According to a ‘progress report’ circulated by the Danish Presidency and consulted by Agence Europe, ministers will be specifically asked to express their views on the role of international carbon credits, the role of natural carbon sinks in the future and other elements of the post-2030 framework requiring further guidance.
This report also takes stock of the current situation and adds new elements to its compromise proposal in order to obtain the most consolidated text possible before the discussions at the European Council on 23 and 24 October.
Countries such as France, Slovakia and Poland have called for the ‘Climate 2040’ proposal to be referred back to the Heads of State or Government so that they can take up this highly political issue. The text should then return to the negotiating table at the EU Council.
The Member States that made this request were joined by countries that had not yet made an explicit decision, such as Italy, Austria and, above all, Germany.
Questioned on the subject on his arrival in Brussels, on the morning of 16 September, in the context of the General Affairs Council (see other news), the German Minister of State for Europe, Gunther Krichbaum, stressed the need to strike a balance “between ecology and the economy”. “When we talk about competitiveness, it also goes hand in hand with the fact that we in Europe must not continue our de-industrialisation”, he stated. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)