The Danish Presidency of the Council of the EU failed to secure a qualified majority on the EU’s 2040 climate emissions target at a meeting of Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper) on Friday 12 September.
Although a large number of EU countries have acknowledged the efforts of the Presidency in recent weeks and have come out in favour of the 90% greenhouse gas emissions reduction target by 2040 (compared to 1990 levels), it was not possible to reach a qualified majority.
The two largest Member States – France and Germany – have insisted that discussions should continue at the level of Heads of State or Government, particularly regarding the flexibilities and enabling conditions that back up the objective (see EUROPE 13706/30).
In total, some ten countries have now explicitly declared that they are in favour of a referral to the European Summit on 23 and 24 October, as confirmed by two sources. These include Italy, Austria, Hungary and Poland.
This discussion could therefore form part of the agenda for the Summit in Brussels, which includes an item on the digital and green ‘twin transition’ (see EUROPE 13701/18), as a spokesperson for the European Council explained.
However, this does mean that it will not be possible to reach an agreement on 18 September at the level of the European climate ministers, during an extraordinary Environment Council, as the Danish Presidency had hoped.
Regrets from the Danish Presidency. Speeking to Danish press agency Ritzau, the Danish Minister for Climate and Energy, Lars Aagaard, reiterated that the Presidency's ambition was to achieve the 2040 target as quickly as possible. “I have never hidden the fact that this is a difficult task, which is politically complicated”, he stated.
”We have made really good progress in bringing countries together around a compromise, but as Presidency we must respect the wish (of Member States)”, he added.
The ambassadors (Coreper) will meet again on Tuesday 16 September for an extraordinary meeting in which they will set the agenda for the Environment Council on 18 September. The Presidency has already indicated that the climate objective will simply be the subject of a political debate, which will make it possible to “clarify the compromise as far as possible with a view to further work”, according to Mr Aagaard.
Will the EU be able to set the 2035 target before COP30? Moreover, the EU will not be able to use an agreed 2040 target as the basis for its ‘Nationally Determined Contribution’ (NDC) setting out the climate framework for 2035. This NDC is expected to be received by the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) this month at the latest, ahead of COP30 in Belém (Brazil) in November. It should be noted that this ‘Contribution’ cannot be rejected by a Member State.
The Coreper meeting on 16 September will therefore also be an opportunity to discuss possible options to avoid “arriving empty-handed” before COP30, as one diplomatic source summed it up.
Some Member States do not wish to “decouple” the 2035 target from the 2040 target, while others may be satisfied with separate targets that are discussed in parallel, alongside the presentation of an indicative range for the percentage reduction in greenhouse gas emissions for 2035.
A third option would be to send a letter of intent before the COP, which would also include a range and would recognise the EU’s climate commitments in broader terms, as three sources have explained. However, this option has yet to be defined.
The Danish Presidency wanted to agree a climate target before the COP. It has therefore now set itself the target of resolving the issue before the end of the year, and therefore the end of its term of office. (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)