Ratification of the EU/Mercosur trade agreement has never been so close. In the Council of the European Union, a blocking minority of Member States no longer seems conceivable as far as the interim trade agreement is concerned. Only Poland remains firmly opposed to the agreement. Warsaw believes that agricultural sensitivities are not sufficiently addressed in the latest version of the agreement.
As for the other countries that have so far been critical, such as France and Italy, they have been reassured by the European Commission’s promise to legislate on a reinforced safeguard clause (see EUROPE 13701/1). However, at a meeting of experts from the Member States at the Council of the EU on Thursday 11 September, several of them stressed the need to have this proposal on the table as soon as possible.
In parallel with this work, most of the Member States are now in agreement on making rapid progress towards signing the agreement, with a view to its entry into force. For this to happen, the Council of the EU must approve it by a qualified majority in the coming weeks. The official signing ceremony will then take place. The European Commission hopes that this stage can be completed before the end of the year, possibly at the Mercosur summit to be held in Brazil in early December.
However, this will not mark the end of the ratification procedure. The European Parliament, in turn, will have to give its consent, probably not before January 2026. Once this stage has been completed, the EU Council will be able to adopt the concluding decision and notify Mercosur that ratification on the EU side has been finalised.
Approval by the Mercosur countries. For their part, the four Mercosur countries party to the agreement must also ratify it before it can finally come into force. The agreement can already be applied gradually to those countries in the bloc that have completed the ratification procedure. However, the full entry into force of the agreement for the whole bloc could take some time, at least until the end of 2026, according to three sources.
At the same time, Europe was worried about the reaction of the Mercosur countries to the announcement of a new safeguard tool within the EU, which will apply to the agreement.
Shortly after the Commission's announcement, the Brazilian President, Lula da Silva, held talks with the President of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. In an account published on the social network X, he said that he had argued “for any safeguard regulation adopted internally by the EU to be fully consistent with the spirit and terms agreed in the agreement”.
For Brazil’s ambassador to the EU, Pedro Miguel da Costa e Silva, it is clear that the two blocs must now move swiftly towards signing the agreement. (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)