In the 2025 edition of its annual Global Hydrogen Review, the International Energy Agency (IEA) acknowledges that low-emissions hydrogen uptake has yet to meet the expectations set by industry and governments in recent years.
The spread of this technology is hampered by high costs, uncertain demand and regulatory environments as well as slow infrastructure development.
As a result, most of the world’s hydrogen demand (almost 100 million tonnes in 2024) has been met by hydrogen produced from fossil fuels, without any measures in place to capture associated emissions.
For the first time, potential production of low-emissions hydrogen by 2030, based on announced projects, has decreased. Production that could be achieved by 2030 now stands at 37 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa), compared with the 49 Mtpa by 2030 announced a year ago.
Despite these developments, the IEA predicts that low-emissions hydrogen production from projects that are now operational or have received a final investment decision should reach 4.2 Mtpa by 2030, five times more than in 2024.
“While this is much lower than government and industry ambitions at the start of this decade, it represents growth from less than 1% of total hydrogen production today to around 4% in 2030”, the report states.
A further six million tonnes a year could also be exploited by 2030, if effective policies to secure demand are implemented.
“To help growth continue, policymakers should maintain support schemes, use the tools they have to foster demand, and expedite the development of necessary infrastructure”, commented IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol.
China remains the leader in the deployment of electrolysers to produce low-emissions hydrogen, with 65% of the world’s electrolyser capacity installed or pending a final investment decision.
On the EU side, the European Commission presented its long-awaited ‘low-carbon hydrogen’ delegated act on 8 July (see EUROPE 13677/21). But it has been criticised by industry, which considers the rules complex and impractical for promoting the technology’s development (see EUROPE 13702/2).
To see the IEA report: https://aeur.eu/f/iek (Original version in French by Pauline Denys)