On Friday 29 and Saturday 30 August, the European defence ministers, followed by their foreign affairs counterparts, will discuss the situation in Ukraine and support for Kyiv. These informal meetings in Copenhagen will round off a busy August on the diplomatic front, with a meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin held in Alaska on 15 August, followed by a meeting between Mr Trump, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, European leaders (Germany, France, Finland, Italy, the UK and the European Commission) and the NATO Secretary General in Washington on 18 August.
While these meetings have not led to any concrete progress, fighting continues in Ukraine, no date has been set for the announced meeting between the Ukrainian and Russian presidents, and with the US president giving himself two weeks to decide on the next steps, the Europeans are expected to discuss the security guarantees they could provide to Kyiv.
On his arrival in the Ukrainian capital on Monday 25 August, German Vice-Chancellor Lars Klingbeil called for “reliable security guarantees to ensure lasting peace for Ukraine”, adding that his country would assume its responsibilities.
Emphasis on security guarantees. A few days earlier, on 19 August, following a meeting of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ and then an informal European Council by videoconference, and in the wake of the Washington meeting, the President of the European Council, António Costa, had said that one of the priorities was to prepare these guarantees for a future peace process.
“The basis for future security guarantees will always be the Ukrainian armed forces themselves. Therefore, strengthening their capacity is a concrete way to strengthen security measures in the future”, he explained, also calling for unlocking the ‘European Peace Facility’ in order to strengthen Ukraine’s military capabilities.
Ahead of the meeting in Washington, which she attended, and at a press briefing in Brussels with Mr Zelensky on 17 August, the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, said that solid security guarantees were needed to protect Ukraine’s vital security interests, as well as those of Europe.
“Ukraine must be able to uphold its sovereignty and its territorial integrity. There can be no limitations on Ukrainian armed forces, be it cooperation with other third countries or assistance from other third countries – no limitations for the Ukrainian armed forces”, she stressed.
Ms von der Leyen, Mr Costa, France and the United Kingdom - co-chairs of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’- also welcomed President Trump's willingness to contribute to security guarantees, such as those set out in Article 5 of NATO’s Washington Treaty on the principle of collective defence.
“It was particularly significant that President Trump confirmed the willingness of the US to participate in the security measures that the coalition of the willing have been working on over the past few months”, stressed the President of the European Council.
France and the United Kingdom also reiterated that the ‘Coalition’ will play an essential role with regard to guarantees, notably through the ‘Multinational Force for Ukraine’. They also reiterated their readiness to deploy a ‘reassurance force’ once hostilities have ceased to help secure Ukraine’s air and sea space and rebuild the Ukrainian armed forces. In recent days, Russia reiterated that a European military presence in Ukraine would be “unacceptable”.
The ‘Coalition’ also took the view that Russia should not be able to veto Ukraine’s path towards the EU and NATO. Mr Trump, for his part, described Kyiv’s hopes of becoming an ally as “impossible”.
At their informal summit, the European leaders discussed concrete measures that the EU could take to make the negotiation process a reality and support Mr Trump in his peace efforts, however, contrary to the US announcements concerning Ukrainian territory, they stressed that “international borders cannot be changed by force”. “These are decisions to be made by Ukraine and Ukraine alone, and these decisions cannot be taken without Ukraine at the table”, said Ms von der Leyen.
Preparation of new sanctions. While diplomatic efforts appear to be continuing, the Europeans announced, through the High Representative Kaja Kallas, at the end of an informal meeting of European foreign ministers by videoconference on 11 August, that they would be preparing the 19th package of sanctions against Russia. The President of the Commission said that the package will be ready by early September.
Ahead of the meeting in Alaska, members of the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ had warned that sanctions and wider economic measures to put pressure on Russia’s war economy would have to be stepped up if Russia did not agree to a ceasefire in Alaska.
The previous sanctions package was adopted on 18 July (see EUROPE 13684/7). (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)