On Tuesday 15 July, the EU’s Foreign Affairs Ministers will meet in Brussels for their last EU Council meeting before the summer break, which will be devoted mainly to matters that have become habitual.
Ukraine. After a speech by Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha via videoconference, the EU Council will discuss the situation and the support to be given to Ukraine, in particular military support, at a time when the country is facing unprecedented air attacks. High Representative of the Union Kaja Kallas is expected to report on her initiative to send two million munitions to Ukraine this year. 80% of the target would be achieved.
The German Minister, Johann Wadephul, could also inform his counterparts about an air defence initiative to buy Patriot systems from the United States for Ukraine.
On Sunday night through to Monday morning, US President Donald Trump announced that his country would send Patriots to the Ukrainians “which they desperately need”, adding that he had not yet decided on the number. At a meeting in Washington with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, Mr Trump also announced an agreement for the United States to “send” weapons to Ukraine that the Allies would “pay for”. Announcing a “very large amount of military equipment” for Kyiv, Mr Rutte cited air defence equipment, missiles and munitions.
The Ministers could also discuss the EU’s internal work on future security guarantees, in particular the role of the EU’s military assistance mission (EUMAM Ukraine), following the meeting on 10 July of the members of the ‘coalition of the willing’, as well as preparations for the United Nations General Assembly in order to secure the strongest possible support from third countries for an “unconditional ceasefire leading to a lasting and just peace”.
The Ministers could adopt the 18th package of sanctions against Russia. Slovakia still has a reservation linked to guarantees obtained on the RepowerEU ‘roadmap’. Explaining that he had “no problem with the 18th package”, but that he had “linked it to REPowerEU”, whose objective of stopping the flow of Russian gas to the EU poses a problem for Bratislava, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico explained on Saturday 12 July that he wanted an agreement by the EU Council.
Malta could also block the adoption of sanctions, this time because of the gas price cap. The system would be slightly reworked, with not a ceiling price lowered to $45, but a ceiling that would fluctuate according to the barrel of oil, a solution that would suit Cyprus and Greece, which are not very keen on the $45 ceiling, but Valletta would still have difficulties.
In addition, the EU Council should adopt sanctions against individuals and entities deemed responsible for destabilising actions, hybrid threats or involved in political trials in Russia.
Middle East. The Ministers will then return to the situation in the Middle East and the High Representative of the Union will brief them on her discussions with the Israeli Foreign Minister, Gideon Sa’ar, and on the work of the Special Representative for the Middle East Peace Process, Christophe Bigot. These discussions led to an agreement between the EU and Israel on measures to allow more humanitarian aid to reach Gazans (see EUROPE 13678/27), which was the aim of the revision of the EU/Israel Association Agreement.
The Ministers will nevertheless examine the options proposed by the High Representative of the Union to respond to the violation of Article 2 of the Association Agreement by the Jewish State (see EUROPE 13679/13). However, there is unlikely to be a majority in favour of adopting measures, and several countries feel that while Israel is making efforts to provide humanitarian aid, now is not the time to crack down. Other Member States would like to see options officially put forward in order to maintain pressure on the Jewish State to ensure that the agreement reached is actually implemented. On Monday 14 July, Gideon Sa’ar expressed confidence that no action would be taken on Tuesday.
The Ministers could also discuss the involvement of the EUBAM Rafah mission. This could be reactivated in the event of a ceasefire, but it could also help the Palestinian Authority to control the humanitarian aid trucks, i.e. advise and monitor the controls, but not control the trucks themselves, at the Kerem Shalom crossing point.
The EU Council is expected to discuss tensions between Iran and Israel and Iran’s nuclear programme. It is expected to support the E3’s efforts to resume negotiations and discuss cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). While Iran had initially announced that it was severing relations with the IAEA, it has now announced that cooperation will take “a new form”. The EU Council could also adopt sanctions against Iranian officials responsible for destabilising the EU.
Mediterranean. The day after a meeting of European Foreign Affairs Ministers with their counterparts from the countries around the Mediterranean, the EU Council will discuss the future pact for the Mediterranean, which the European Commission is due to present on 15 October (see EUROPE 13677/17). This should focus on people, the economy, security and migration. The Ministers will also discuss the need to reform the Union for the Mediterranean, a reform also expected in autumn.
Georgia. The Ministers will also review the situation in Georgia, which is continuing to move away from its European path (see other news), and look at possible levers for changing the situation. While several delegations support sanctions against political leaders responsible for reprisals against peaceful demonstrators, two States are opposed. The High Representative has prepared a list of 15 people, including judges, who could be sanctioned, according to a senior European official.
The mandate of the EU’s special envoy for the South Caucasus and the crisis in Georgia, Magdalena Grono, should also be extended by two years.
Haiti. The crisis persists in Haiti (see EUROPE 13658/20). “Between 1 January and 30 June, at least 3,141 people were killed in Haiti”, said Ravina Shamdasani, a spokeswoman for the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights, when she presented a report in Geneva on Friday 11 July. New EU sanctions targeting individuals or entities involved in the Haiti crisis are due to be adopted on Tuesday, a European source confirmed to Agence Europe on Monday 14 July.
Current affairs. The Ministers will shortly be returning to the EU-CELAC Summit, scheduled for November, and the day after the first EU-CELAC Association Council, the Summit with Japan and the Summit with China, scheduled for 24 July. The High Representative of the Union will brief Ministers on the high-level dialogue held with China on 2 July (see EUROPE 13673/21).
Somalia. The Ministers will also take stock of the deteriorating situation in Somalia, following the offensive by the jihadist group al-Shabaab in early July and the subsequent response by the Somali National Army.
Moldova. The EU Council will be preceded by a breakfast with the Moldovan Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mihai Popșoi, a few days after the EU-Moldova Summit in Chisinau (see EUROPE 13674/1) and a few weeks before parliamentary elections which are important for the country’s European future, but which could be subject to hybrid attacks. The EU Council should adopt sanctions against individuals and organisations that played a destabilising role in the presidential election and the referendum on the EU in autumn 2024 (see EUROPE 13508/1). It should also agree to the deployment of a new task force to counter hybrid threats. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant and Bernard Denuit)