On Sunday 20 October, Moldovans voted by a very narrow majority, ‘yes’, in a referendum to change the Constitution in order to incorporate the country’s European perspective.
After all the votes had been counted, 50.46% of Moldovans ultimately said ‘yes’. 2.8 million Moldovans - 1/3 of whom live abroad - were asked to express their views on the European future of their country by answering the question: “Are you in favour of amending the Constitution to enshrine the Republic of Moldova’s membership of the European Union?”
Article 1 of the Constitution should now reconfirm “the European identity of the people of the Republic of Moldova and the irreversibility of the Republic of Moldova’s European path”, and declare integration into the European Union to be the country’s “strategic objective”.
Another Article of the Constitution refers to the fact that Moldova will join the founding treaties of the EU. This amendment, which affects the country’s sovereignty, has caused more controversy.
For supporters of the ‘yes’ vote in the referendum, the main challenge was likely to be turnout, with the latest polls showing a 55% ‘yes’ vote in the event of a quorum being reached. A quorum representing 1/3 of voters.
Although the pro-Russian parties had initially called for a boycott of the vote because they did not have a quorum, they eventually called for a ‘no’ vote.
In the end, around 1.49 million Moldovans voted in the referendum, i.e. half of all eligible voters.
A divided country. Throughout election night, poor numbers for the ‘yes’ supporters kept coming. Polling station by polling station, first in the more pro-Russian regions, then more widely, the ‘no’ vote won by around 56%, a figure that changed little as the evening progressed. At 7 a.m. (Brussels time) on Monday, the ‘no’ vote was still in the lead, with just over 50% (50.09%), but then the tide turned as the diaspora votes were counted.
“Once again, we have been saved by the diaspora”, said Dorin, a ‘yes’ supporter, with a sigh of relief. Almost 77% of the diaspora voted in favour of enshrining the country’s European future in the Constitution, compared with 56% for the Chișinău region, 37.44% for Transnistria and just 5.16% for Gagauzia.
A vote for the future. Visibly relieved, the Moldovan President, Maia Sandu, welcomed her citizens’ support for the referendum, which she had initiated. “A majority of Moldovan citizens have decided that the Republic of Moldova is on the road to European integration”, she praised at a press briefing.
“Whether you voted in Soroca, Chișinău, Ștefan Vodă, Milan or Dublin, whether you voted at dawn or late at night, you chose for Moldova to move towards peace and prosperity. Every vote counted - from north to south, from every corner of the world”, stated the President.
And she added: “Thanks to you, dear Moldovans, we have won the first battle in a difficult struggle that will determine the future of our country”. The second battle will be the second round of the presidential election on 3 November, in which Mrs Sandu, the pro-European outgoing president, will face the pro-Russian Socialist candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo (42.45% for Sandu against 25.98% for Stoianoglo in the first round).
Massive vote buying. While it was expected that the election would face a major disinformation campaign, it was also the subject of a massive vote-buying campaign, a relatively new phenomenon, according to the President.
While the results had not yet been published, Maia Sandu issued a short statement on Sunday night denouncing vote buying. “We have evidence and information that the objective of criminal groups in collaboration with foreign forces hostile to the interests of” the country “was to buy 300,000 votes. The scale of the fraud is unprecedented”, she denounced in an uncharacteristically firm tone. During the day Monday, Mrs Sandu said that State institutions had documented 150,000 people who had been paid to vote.
She said that these groups had “attacked the country with tens of thousands of euros, lies and propaganda, using the most shameful means to keep (the) citizens and (the) nation trapped in uncertainty and instability”.
“What happened yesterday, and over the last two years, is an attack on our democracy and the freedom of our people. An attack on our people’s aspiration to be part of the European family of peace”, insisted the President, believing that the country’s “enemies” wanted a “divided and fearful” Moldova.
The President criticised the judicial system for not having done enough to prevent electoral fraud and corruption, warning that more needed to be done.
A few days earlier, the head of the national police, Viorel Cernautanu, had announced that 130,000 people had been bribed to vote ‘no’ in the referendum or for a pro-Russian presidential candidate. He claims that more than $15 million was transferred from Russia to Moldova in September to bribe voters.
Mr Gahler denounces Russian interference. At a press conference in Chișinău on Monday, Michael Gahler (EPP, German), Chairman of the European Parliament delegation, a member delegation of the international election observation mission (OSCE/ODIHR), denounced “massive and malicious Russian interference, without precedent, particularly through vote-buying, hybrid attacks and disinformation”.
Despite this interference, “the people of the Republic of Moldova have chosen a future in the EU”, the MEP recognised, considering that “given the circumstances, the result (was) a remarkable achievement”.
Although the observation mission did not find any vote-buying on polling day, its preliminary report, published on Monday 21 October, states that “there is credible evidence of foreign interference, particularly in the form of illicit financial inducements to influence voters”, including by Ilan Şor, a pro-Russian opponent sanctioned by the EU.
“Pro-Russian actors (have) led campaigns of foreign interference and disinformation, while traditional views on minorities and LGBT rights have sometimes been presented as reasons to vote ‘no’ in EU referendums”, said Johan Büser, head of the OSCE Parliamentary Assembly delegation.
The Moldovan electoral commission also highlighted incidents such as the organised transport of voters or the corruption of voters.
European congratulations. The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, welcomed the result of the vote. “In the face of Russia’s hybrid tactics, Moldova shows that it is independent, it is strong and it wants a European future!”, she rejoiced on X. “We will be with you at every step of the European process”, promised Commissioner for Enlargement, Olivér Várhelyi. (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)