Of the Western Balkan states, five have secured the status of candidate for accession to the European Union; Albania was the fourth to do so. Montenegro obtained approval to open negotiations in 2012 and Serbia in 2014, while Albania did not do so until 2022, the same year as North Macedonia (see EUROPE 12996/2). For the former, the negotiations proper have yet to begin, while former latter, they are proceeding apace. For years, it was assumed that the next two new members of the European Union would be Montenegro and Serbia. The war in Ukraine changed everything: as readers will be aware, fresh accession requests have come in from the East and Serbia, amongst others, have lined themselves up behind Moscow.
As things stand, Montenegro and Albania are leading the race, looking to come on board in 2030, if not sooner.
Having previously visited Slovenia, Croatia and Montenegro, I had a further reason to take a closer look at Albania, as I fortuitously had the opportunity to do last month. Throughout the trip, a feeling of competition was a constant theme. There was sporting competition: the country hosted the first stage of the Tour of Italy 2025, coinciding with Europe Day. There is also political competition, with the general elections taking place on 11 May.
Other events have also helped to put Albania on the map. In 2022, the US Special Operations Command Europe established a forward headquarters in the country, which has been a member of NATO since 2009; Tirana also hosted the EU/Western Balkans summit. The following year, Prime Minister Edi Rama decided to keep Ms Meloni on-side by building two hosting centres for illegal migrants (see EUROPE 13571/38). A more judicious and humane idea was that of opening a third campus of the College of Europe in Tirana: with branches in Bruges and Natolin, why not site a third one in the Balkans? The first students arrived in September 2024: a masterstroke. Furthermore, in the spring of this year, the European Political Community had to meet in a non-EU member state. Following on from meetings in Moldova and the United Kingdom, it was to be the turn of the Western Balkans on 16 May: but where? Tirana, of course (see EUROPE 13642/1)! Rama was so confident that the electorate would vote him back into office a few days before the meeting that he made his offer well in advance.
It is a pilgrimage that senior EU figures have also made. Newly re-elected to the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen kicked off her tour of the region in Albania on 23 October 2024 (see EUROPE 13510/17). Kaja Kallas visited the country on 8 April 2025 (see 13617/4), António Costa on 15 May (see EUROPE 13641/4); all three made positive speeches about the country’s chances of joining in 2030, if not earlier.
Albania, moreover, is the fastest-growing tourist destination in the whole of Europe: in 2024, it welcomed 11.7 million tourists, an increase of 60% compared to pre-COVID numbers. By 2030, tourist numbers are expected to reach the 30 million mark. This is an extraordinary achievement for a country of 2.7 million permanent residents, but a major challenge as well.
And yet this little country has come a long way. It proclaimed independence in 1912, even before its borders had been settled. During ancient times, after its occupation by the Greek city-states, it became a Roman province and was subsequently absorbed into the Byzantine Empire. The weakening of this empire allowed the emergence of a principality in the late 12th century, but this came under attack many times, including by Venice. In the mid-15th century, despite the resistance organised by the man who would become the country’s national hero, Skanderbeg, Albania fell under Ottoman rule for more than three centuries. After the Great War, Albania joined the League of Nations (1920), held its first elections (1921) and proclaimed itself a Republic (1925). Following other trials and tribulations, fascist Italy annexed the country (1939) which was then, after the fall of Mussolini, occupied by the Nazis (1943-44). But the Communists took up residence in the Balkans and the Socialist Republic came into being in 1949, led by the dictator Enver Hoxha (until his death in 1985).
A long period of totalitarianism followed. Albania’s isolation became complete after breaking its ties with Tito (1948), the USSR (1961) and China (1976), even though the last of these had helped it enormously. Bunkers were built on all borders. To attempt to get out of the country was to risk one’s life. The regime persecuted its opponents, and anybody suspected of opposing it, including religious leaders, in accordance with the official atheism set out in the Albanese constitution. Underground shelters were built in Tirana to protect senior government figures from nuclear attack. One of these has been made into a museum listing the identities of the regime’s victims and showing the atrocious methods of repression used by the dictatorship and can be visited by the public today.
The fall of the ‘Iron Curtain’ and the fresh breeze of liberalisation had their effects on the Balkans. Albania’s neighbouring Yugoslavia collapsed, bringing horrific wars to the region. Albania, where Hoxha’s successor had been forced to give in to pressure from protesters, led by students in Tirana, was spared these. Even so, it was the dawn of a period of chaos. All lands, which were owned by the State, had to be redistributed. In 1997, the banking system collapsed. The country was looted by armed gangs. In 1999, moreover, the neighbouring Kosovo was bombed by Serbia and 400,000 people sought refuge in Albania.
In the course of this decade, many deeply impoverished Albanians left the country. In southern Italy, many of them discovered the local Mafia and hence an opportunity to earn money by trafficking weapons, human beings and drugs (marijuana, heroin, cocaine). There is therefore now an Albani-Kosovar Mafia, known by reputation to be extremely violent, active in several countries of Europe and North America.
But one should not lead us to conclude that daily life is dangerous in Albania itself. The country is known to be safe, even for women travelling alone. Unlike its neighbours, it is not at risk of inter-ethnic or inter-religious conflicts. Three major religions (Islam, the Orthodox Church and Roman Catholicism) live side-by-side in peace and marriage between them is not uncommon. If there are any dangers to life in the country, they are seismic or sanitary (the standard of local medicine being somewhat below par).
There is a large Albania diaspora, for the reasons stated above. It has been put at 1.7 million people, living mainly in Italy, Turkey, Greece, Germany, Switzerland and the United States. Emigration, particularly of young people, and a birthrate in decline since the 1990s remain a challenge for the government authorities. To reverse the trend, they are staking everything on economic development and the country’s future membership of the European Union – a very popular notion with the Albanian general public: 87% in favour, one of the highest approval ratings of any country. The Western mindset seems to be solidly rooted. (to be continued)
Renaud Denuit