The heads of state or government of the countries of the European Union will be asked to submit nominations for three senior European posts at the European Council meeting on Thursday 27 and Friday 28 June in Brussels.
Since the informal summit on Monday 17 June, during which they drew initial lessons from the European elections (see EUROPE 13433/1), negotiators from the three political families - Christian Democrats (EPP), Social Democrats (S&D), Centre Right and Liberals (Renew Europe) - likely to form a pro-European majority within the European Parliament have reached an informal agreement on the following nominations: - German Christian Democrat Ursula von der Leyen to head the Commission for 5 years; - Portuguese Socialist António Costa as President of the European Council for 2.5 years; - the liberal Estonian Kaja Kallas as High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy for 5 years (see EUROPE 13439/8).
This proposal will be sent to EU leaders on Thursday, bearing in mind that the decision must be taken by a reinforced qualified majority (21 countries representing 65% of the population) of Member States.
“There may be one, two or three reservations”, admitted a European source on Wednesday 26 June, judging that the personalities being put forward are “qualified” and form a “balanced” trio from a political, geographical and gender point of view.
The Hungarian Prime Minister, Viktor Orbán, the Italian Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, and the Slovakian President, Peter Pellegrini, could all express opposition.
“At the European Council, we always try to be as inclusive as possible”, but “some parties think they have the necessary majority” to put forward names, said another diplomatic source. This source did not deny the “frustration” expressed by some leaders, such as Ms Meloni, after the European summit on 17 June, noting that the negotiators for the European parties had communicated with the Italian leader. “But the treaty is the treaty and we have rules”, the source added.
Addressing the Italian Parliament on Wednesday, Ms Meloni described the European summit of 17 June as “surreal”, saying that “some (had) come up with proposals for names for key posts without even pretending to want to enter into a discussion on the message coming from the citizens with their vote”, according toAFP.
The European elections enabled sovereignist and nationalist parties to gain ground, but they were unable to prevent the formation of a pro-European coalition at the centre of the political spectrum.
Not denying the crisis of “confidence” among Europe’s citizens, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz told the Bundestag that “three out of four Europeans do not vote for populist and extremist parties, but for pro-European forces”, even though the Social Democrats came in behind the Conservatives and the far right in Germany. He said that he hoped for a swift decision from the EU Council on the three names, convinced that “citizens are not waiting for squabbles over posts, but for the European institutions to work swiftly”.
None of the diplomats consulted on Wednesday mentioned the possibility that the package of nominations might include posts within the next Commission as a step in Italy’s direction. In 2019, the European Council suggested that the Danish liberal Margrethe Vestager and the Dutch socialist Frans Timmermans should become Executive Vice-Presidents of the Commission, thereby encroaching on the prerogatives of the Commission President (see EUROPE 12287/1).
According to this first European source, however, nominations for senior European posts should be separated from the formation of the next Commission. But it cannot be ruled out that discussions are already taking place on the distribution of portfolios within the future College of Commissioners.
European Parliament vote required. If she is nominated for a second mandate as President of the Commission, Ms von der Leyen will have to clear the hurdle of the European Parliament by being elected by an absolute majority of MEPs (361 votes in 2024).
Such a decision would have the merit of putting the process of head of list candidates (‘Spitzenkandidaten’) back on track, since the European Council would choose the candidate of the ‘European People’s Party’ (EPP) and the pro-European political groups in the European Parliament would be called upon to validate this proposal based on the results of the European elections.
Between now and the European Parliament vote, potentially on Thursday 18 July, the German Christian Democrat will have to negotiate a programme with the coalition of EPP, S&D and Renew Europe political groups, which currently has 400 seats. Ms von der Leyen is due to attend the meeting of the Conference of Presidents (CoP) of the European Parliament groups on Tuesday 2 July if she is nominated by the EU27.
One question remains: will this pro-European majority be sufficient or will it be necessary, informally, to give pledges to other political groups or national parties to support the EPP candidate?
Europe’s Greens assure that they are prepared to bring stability to a pro-European, pro-Ukraine and pro-Rule of law coalition, as Ms von der Leyen hopes for, provided that the European Green Deal is not called into question. There is talk of support from conservative forces, including MEPs from Ms Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia party and Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala’s ODS party, despite the repeated refusal of the S&D and Renew Europe groups to consider any cooperation with the far right.
Strategic Agenda 2024-2029. The EU27 will also be asked to approve their Strategic Agenda 2024-2029 (see EUROPE 13438/19). This agenda sets out the political priorities to be pursued - security and defence, competitiveness, climate transition, Rule of law - as well as the internal projects - enlargement, budget, governance - that will enable the EU to meet the challenges it will face in the future.
For this agenda to be adopted, a consensus is needed between the Member States. Some speculate that one or more EU leaders might be inclined to block the agenda because they would be hostile to the decision the European Council might take on senior European nominations. The order of discussions at the summit on the strategic agenda and nominations has yet to be formally decided.
On Wednesday, at the end of the meeting of the Member States’ ambassadors to the EU (Coreper), some delegations had still tabled amendments on subjects such as migration and European defence financing. According to several sources, although Hungary has expressed its demands, it has not communicated its intention to oppose the Strategic Agenda.
To see the draft conclusions of the European Council dated 25 June, including the latest version of the draft Strategic Agenda: https://aeur.eu/f/ctk
At the same time, the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council has laid the groundwork for Member States to reflect on internal reform of the Union. It has identified four areas that reflect some of the issues identified when the Strategic Agenda was drawn up: - values and respect for the Rule of law; - competitiveness and economic sovereignty; - future of the EU budget; - institutional governance (see EUROPE 13439/8).
To see the report by the Belgian Presidency of the EU Council: https://aeur.eu/f/csx (Original version in French by Mathieu Bion with the editorial staff)