On Tuesday 19 March, the High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, warned that the coming months will be crucial in Ukraine.
“The summer will be critical”, he explained to a group of journalists, including Agence Europe, on the occasion of the publication of the annual report on the implementation of the Strategic Compass. “Russia is striking Ukraine’s positions every day to weaken them, and when spring and summer arrive, we will certainly see an increase in military activity”, he warned.
On Tuesday, Moscow claimed it had captured Orlivka, in the east of the country, and announced that it had improved its positions in the area. “This is a critical moment for Ukraine”, according to the High Representative, who added that the Russians had more firepower than Ukraine. What’s more, “the Russians believe that time is on their side. They’re in no hurry. They are waiting for the results of the American elections”.
The High Representative stressed that the EU’s priority was to support Ukraine. He recalled the previous day’s agreement on the €5 billion Ukraine Assistance Fund (UAF).
Over the last two years, “we have mobilised €28 billion for military equipment. Compared with the United States – more than €50 billion – what the EU is doing is not negligible: it is 60% of what the United States is doing. In terms of our military capabilities, these are perhaps greater efforts than those of the Americans”, explained Mr Borrell. In addition, 46,000 Ukrainians have already been trained by Europeans in several Member States.
According to the High Representative, by the end of the year the Europeans will have donated 1.2 million munitions to Ukraine. Referring to the Czech initiative, he explained that within a couple of months, 300,000 munitions will be supplied through this initiative, and a further 500,000 by the end of the year. “It’s not that immediate”, he regretted.
The High Representative also hoped that security commitments between the EU and Ukraine would be agreed before the European elections in May. According to a senior diplomat, these commitments will cover two areas. The first will relate to security and defence, with nine concrete commitments, including on equipment, training, demining and cooperation in the defence industry. A broader part will relate to subjects connected with the future EU negotiation process, “because the best security guarantee that the EU can offer is Ukraine’s accession to the EU”. This senior official felt that with the agreement on the UAF, the European External Action Service could quickly propose the text to the Member States, which would then have to be agreed between the EU27 and then with Ukraine.
Increase in defence spending
The High Representative also announced that in 2023, according to the latest estimates, Member States spent €290 billion on defence.
“That’s a lot more than last year, when it was 240, so that’s an increase of 20%”, said Mr Borrell.
He says that this represents 1.5% of GDP, which is still far from the 2% target set by NATO. He also criticised the fact that only 18% of investments are made in collaboration, whereas the target is 40% by 2030.
See the annual report on the implementation of the Strategic Compass: https://aeur.eu/f/bey (Original version in French by Camille-Cerise Gessant)