Growth in merchandise trade in 2023 is no longer expected to be 1.7% as forecast in April (see EUROPE 13157/18), but 0.8%, according to the latest estimates from the World Trade Organization (WTO), published on Thursday 5 October. However, the organisation is maintaining its projection of 3.3% growth for 2024.
World trade slowed in the fourth quarter of 2022 due to inflation and tighter monetary policy. The slowdown can be seen in many countries and across a wide range of products.
WTO experts are hoping to see merchandise trade pick up again in 2024 on the back of slow but steady world GDP growth. However, the risk of supply chain fragmentation remains, and this could threaten forecasts for 2024.
“This is why WTO members must seize the opportunity to strengthen the global trading framework by avoiding protectionism and promoting a more resilient and inclusive global economy,” insisted WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala on Thursday 5 October.
See the October forecasts: https://aeur.eu/f/8xv (Original version in French by Léa Marchal)